268
FXUS63 KDTX 112043
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
343 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light snow/rain showers are possible this evening and
  overnight with little to no accumulation.

- Periods of lingering rain showers continue over The Thumb on
  Wednesday with renewed afternoon gustiness across the rest of
  Southeast Michigan.

- A drier and warmer trend builds through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A warm front lifts into the Great Lakes region this evening and
overnight offering potential for light precipitation generated
within the elevated portion of the frontal slope. This isentropic
ascent activates a quasi-saturated lower column environment,
sufficient for some rain/sprinkles, and perhaps even a few
additional melting flakes. However, ice nuclei will be sparse as
evidenced in forecast thermal/moisture profiles. The surface
boundary passes through between 03Z and 09Z (Wednesday) with an
uptick in gradient winds, holding south-southwesterly. Speeds of 15-
20 mph are possible into Wednesday morning, although the nocturnal
inversion should limit gustiness.

The core arctic airmass gets shoved into the maritime Canadian
provinces by Wednesday while a trailing cold front, tied to low
pressure over Ontario, works through Lower Michigan. Weak
precipitation response activated within the frontal zone given
ThetaE advection, and lake modification. Can`t rule out a few
morning flurries and/or sprinkles before zonal flow sets up beneath
an elongated jet streak, digging through the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Longwave ridging over western CONUS amplifies, nudging the
jet northward into southern Lower Wednesday afternoon. Latest data
suggests renewed gust response Wednesday afternoon as mixing depths
rise to around 3 kft, tapping into 35+ knot flow. A bit warmer with
highs breaking the 40F mark, but wind chills lend temperatures that
feel sub-freezing. Lingering precipitation chances (mainly liquid)
over portions of The Thumb before sundown.

Height rises build into the region on Thursday as upstream ridging
amplifies. This causes the jet to exit while surface high pressure
builds across Lake Superior. Warm advection picks up, as the warming
trend carries into the end of the week. Anticyclonic flow aloft
ensures dry weather with a weakening wind field. Highs return to
seasonal normals on Friday, becoming warmer than climatological
averages over the weekend. Double digit 850 mb temperatures in place
Saturday with a tightening surface pressure gradient resulting in
confluent southerly winds. The pronounced warm sector may support a
period of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, as dynamic
ascent arrives with a high degree of CVA as a triple wave merger
unfolds over central CONUS.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface ridge axis has passes east of the area today opening the
door for increased southwesterly flow today with gusts to around 25
knots. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for all
nearshore waters for these winds. A low pressure system over Ontario
has a cold front draped southward through WI at the moment. A strong
low level jet in advance of the front will force a warm front up
through the region this evening as the low level jet then noses into
the area, up to 50 knots over Lake Erie and 40 knots up to Saginaw
Bay, before pushing off to the east tonight. Unfavorable
southwesterly flow and nocturnal timing make widespread gales
unlikely with this jet but a couple gusts to gales remain possible.
The cold front then passes through early Wednesday bringing another
period of increased winds out of the northwest. As previously
mentioned, the background wind field aloft remain on the low side
peaking around 35 to 40 knots and the thermal trough is also not
very cold cutting into instability and mixing depths. So continues
to be a marginal setup for northwesterly gales during the daytime
Wednesday so will hold off on any gale headlines. Nearshore zones,
however, will see an extended period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions as several episodes of elevated wind/wave action are
expected through Thursday. Quieter conditions then prevail to start
the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

AVIATION...

Lake moisture release on the lead edge of strengthening southwest
flow has support widespread MVFR development late this morning. This
lower cloud is expected to gradually scatter through the afternoon
favoring lower VFR as moisture flux off the lake is advected north
of the region with modestly drier low level air pushing in from the
south. Elevated warm frontal boundary lifting through lower MI this
afternoon offers a low chance for an drizzle however with drier low
level air coverage/impact not anticipated to warrant mention in
TAFs. Southwest winds gust 20-25kts through the evening. With strong
winds aloft, an isolated gust towards 25-30kts can`t be ruled out
tonight though given the time of day, overall potential for frequent
gusts of that magnitude is low.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High in ceilings aob 5000 feet early afternoon and again
   overnight. Moderate late afternoon-evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....KDK


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.