516
FXUS63 KDTX 030457
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild Tuesday with near record high temperatures in the mid to upper
  70s.

- Breezy Tuesday with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

- Mild conditions continue Wednesday with increasing potential for
  light rain.

&&

.AVIATION...

Elongated area of low pressure over central CONUS continues to
govern conditions across the airspace overnight into Tuesday.
Widespread MVFR ceilings have started to flirt with IFR, with a more
cohesive plume of IFR upstream and lifting into SE Michigan. Dry air
however is observed over Indiana and will begin to eat into the IFR
ceilings by 09z at DTW/DET/YIP up to MBS by around 12z. Models are
aggressive in drying the low levels with the expectation for low VFR
ceilings by daybreak for most of the airspace. Arrival of the
surface warm front Tuesday morning veers winds to the southwest with
strengthening gradient bringing sustained wind speeds toward 15
knots by mid-day. Low VFR continues to erode through the day,
resulting in at least partial clearing by afternoon.

For DTW...MVFR ceilings have been flirting with IFR over the past
couple of hours, with a broader area of IFR upstream that is on
track to reach DTW around 06z. Drier air is pushing north into
Indiana, with time of arrival tools and model guidance suggesting an
aggressive drying trend to bring ceilings back to MVFR/low VFR
between 09z-12z. Ceilings are then forecast to lift above 5000 feet
by Tuesday afternoon.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings 5000 ft or less tonight. Moderate Tuesday
  morning becoming low Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

A large upper level trough will move into the Plains today and will
be the focus of the weather locally for the next several days. It
slows it`s eastward progress today as additional shortwave energy
both from the southern stream and diving southward down the backside
of the trough helps try to close off the base of the trough tonight.
The system will first present us with a few very warm days with near
record highs on Tuesday ahead of the trough. The stacked trough then
cuts off and slowly drifts over the area through the latter half of
the week present a few chances for rain heading into the weekend and
cooler temps, albeit near normal for early November.

The upper level ridge axis crossed the area last night opening the
door for southerly flow to kick up and begin the warm advection
process. Combine this with heights building aloft and even with the
wealth of cloud cover, temps will climb into the 60s today and low
to mid 70s on Tuesday as the low level jet really ramps up. 850mb
temps will rise into the low teens after being around 9C today.
Record highs in the mid to upper 70s look to be possible. Winds will
be another issue on Tuesday as the low level jet around 35 knots
down to 1500ft could be mixed to the surface. Soundings and
probabilistic guidance supports gusts to around 30 knots.

We could see some light rain showers as the warm front lifts through
the area tonight. We`ve seen some blips on radar through the day
which is all virga, but the front will offer better support but
location of the frontal showers this afternoon lines up pretty well
with hires models so best chance for any precip would be over the
Saginaw Valley and Thumb with lesser chances to the SE. Slight
chance to Chance POPs will continue to cover this portion of the
event. Chances go down on Tuesday as we get solidly in the warm
sector while the warm front lights up and expands across the U.P.
and northern Great Lakes.

Closed and occluding upper low then lifts into the upper MS Valley
Tuesday night into Wednesday which will push the moisture axis
through lower MI bringing widespread rain to the area through the
day. Cold front pushes through early Wednesday night bringing
another line of showers through the area before we dry out some the
rest of the night. Dewpoints will rise to around 60F and PWATs climb
to around 1.3 inches so there will be some moisture to work with.
QPF looks lean though without greater forcing as the instability
gets held southeast of us and the low tracks to the north. Looking
for generally around a quarter inch.

Dry slotting in between short wave troughs rotating around the
broader low, will lead to a drier day Thursday. Thermal trough will
be over the area with 850mb temps down to 4-6C which will knock
highs back to around 60F during the day, which is still above
normal. The longwave trough itself then drifts over the region on
Friday with residual moisture axis bringing another round of light
rain or drizzle through the day.

MARINE...

Broad low pressure over the Plains will consolidate over the western
Great Lakes late Tuesday. A warm front passes northward across the
region tonight with southerly wind speed increasing through early
Tuesday. The inbound warm air will promote increasing low-level
stability over the lakes and prevent higher winds from mixing down,
but by early afternoon gusts as high as 25 to 30 kt are expected
over the open waters of Lake Huron. Given limited fetch, the
nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt. Similar
conditions persist into Wednesday with slight backing to wind
direction over southern Lake Huron which may necessitate a Small
Craft Advisory along the Thumb shoreline. A cold front brings high
coverage of light showers across the area late in the day and into
Wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind the front. The
weakening low slowly meanders across the western Great Lakes on
Thursday before a stronger cold front tracks southward across the
region on Friday. This brings moderate north and northeast winds
that shift northwest by Saturday.

CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for November 3rd:

Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Flint:   79 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......TF
CLIMATE......TF


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