974
FXUS63 KDTX 151645
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures and dry into early next week.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms return for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light northeast winds this afternoon with mid clouds over northern
sites dissipating toward evening. Mostly clear skies tonight into
Monday. However, low level winds shifting to the east-southeast will
attempt to usher in some low level moisture currently over the
Eastern Great Lakes. There is a low chance for high MVFR/low VFR
cloud deck developing Monday morning, mainly over southern the taf
sites.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

DISCUSSION...

Quiet close to the weekend with stable conditions in place from high
pressure tracking across the region. Southeast MI remains on the southern
end of the anticylonic lower level flow resulting in east to
northeast winds through today. Temperatures of 11C to 12C at 850mb
with a more sun today should yield daytime high temperatures to
around 80 degrees. The onshore flow will keep lakeshore locations a
few degrees cooler.

Tonight into tomorrow will see PacNW shortwave energy work around
the upper ridge extending into the northern plains while flattening
it to some degree. At the same time, weak mid-level troughing
develops across the mid Mississippi River Valley and east of the
broader trough. The main downstream consequence locally for Monday
will be warm, moist advection and will help increase daytime highs
into the low to mid 80s with continued dry conditions.

Deeper southwest flow kicks in Tuesday and continues the warming
trend as daytime highs approach 90 in some locations. It will also
mark the beginning of a stretch that is littered with PoPs from
Tuesday through Thursday. Much of Tuesday may end up mostly dry as
southeast Michigan resides between the better frontal forcing across
the Ohio Valley and a mid-level wave and associated front moving
across the northern Great Lakes. The increase in moisture and
proximity to forcing warrants at least lower end PoPs. Greatest rain
and thunderstorm potential will be Wednesday into Wednesday night as
southern and northern stream energy attempt to interact and a surface
wave develops along a boundary laid out across central/northern
Lower Michigan. PWATs will increase to greater than 1.75 inches,
which brings potential for locally heavy rainfall. Increased
instability and shear will also provide an environment capable of
organized convection. However, being this far out there is still
variance in models with plenty of details to hash out in regards to
timing and placement of features with upcoming forecast. The trailing
mid-upper level wave will be responsible for the continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

MARINE...

High pressure over eastern Canada maintains favorable marine weather
today with light northeast wind and dry conditions. Wind funneling
effects bring a local increase in wind speed to around 15 to 20 kt
over Saginaw Bay this afternoon. As the high pressure drifts over
the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, flow over the central Great Lakes
gains a southerly component which allows a warmer and more unstable
air mass to build in. A warm front brings the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, and unsettled conditions are
likely to continue through the rest of the week as several
disturbances move through the region.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......TF


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