825
FXUS63 KDTX 122329
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
729 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with daytime temperatures in the mid 60s low-mid 70s
  today through Tuesday.

- Cooler Wednesday into Friday with daily highs of mid 50s to mid
  60s.

- Dry weather continues mid to late week with the exception of a few
  possible stray showers Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Surface ridging will hold over Southeast Michigan throughout the
period. Uptick in surface moisture with dewpoints in the lower 50s
brings the prospects for a persistence forecast and br/fg at
daybreak. Did include BKN IFR ceilings with the TEMPO group for fog.
Conditional with the fog development, thinking the fog lifts rather
than burns off, included MVFR ceilings mid morning Monday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms through the taf period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  Medium for ceilings aob 5000 ft agl after 10Z Monday.

*  Medium for visibilities aob 1/2 sm or ceilings aob 200 ft 09z-13z
   Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

DISCUSSION...

Extension of the surface high pressure over eastern Canada reaches
into the Great Lakes while mid/upper ridging moves overhead between
strong low pressure systems over the eastern CONUS and in central
Canada. This will ensure dry weather conditions through tonight. The
easterly wind component holds the lake moisture in place supporting
the scattered afternoon clouds, which are expected to decrease with
the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies and persistence of easterly
flow tonight will set the stage for patchy fog and low cloud
development. Similar to this morning, lighter winds may focus
towards the central part of the state and thus may see better chance
at great visibility reductions.

A cold front associated with the central Canadian low pressure
system will approach from the west tomorrow, which will lead to an
increase in high clouds more towards he later part of day. Will see
temperatures respond accordingly under mostly sunny skies with a
slight bump upwards into the lower 70s for tomorrow`s highs.
Expectation is for a dry frontal passage late tomorrow night/Tuesday
morning with both the overall moisture depth and upper level forcing
lacking. There remains strong model agreement on this outcome.

Main result of the frontal passage during the first half of Tuesday
will be the northwest wind shift. The first sign of cooler
temperatures also arrives. Areas north of I-69 will likely top out
in the mid 60s for highs with areas near the southern Michigan border
forecast to reach achieve the 70 degree mark or slightly greater.

Better cold advection arrives with a surface high pressure moving
out of central Canada bringing temperatures down into the 50s for
most of the area Wednesday. Only precipitation potential mid week
looks to be Wednesday morning along the mid level front zone where a
few ensemble members are spitting out a hundredth or two of QPF.
Seems likely that most of the area will be dry with only a few stray
showers possible.

High pressure maintains control through the end of the work week
bringing more dry weather conditions with temperatures holding mostly
in the 60s for daytime highs. Coldest morning in the mid-late week
period will be Thursday morning when temperatures are forecast to
approach 32 degrees for much of southeast Michigan. Precipitation
chances increase over the weekend as height falls move over the
Great Lakes and greater moisture arrives within the deeper southwest
flow.

MARINE...

Central Great Lakes remains under the influence of weak ridging
through Monday. Despite this, the presence of low pressure systems
over the east coast and Manitoba maintain modest east-southeast
winds ranging between 10-20kts. Gradient finally relaxes daytime
Monday as Canadian low pressure lifts over the Hudson Bay allowing
now southeasterly winds to fall below 15kts. The cold front tied to
this low pivots over the central Great Lakes Tuesday offering
chances to see a few scattered showers late as well as setting up
moderate northwesterly winds gusting between 20-30kts. High pressure
sinking out of the Canadian Prairie then builds across the region
midweek.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK


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