960
FXUS63 KDTX 021742
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1242 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy and mild today and Tuesday. Near record high
  temperatures Tuesday.

- Mild conditions continue Wednesday with increasing potential for
  light rain.

&&

.AVIATION...

A complex of low pressure spans the entire Plains states into
central Canada today, and this is the focus of aviation conditions
in the Great Lakes today through Tuesday. The system has a primary
low center near the SD/MN border with a warm front extending into
the Ohio valley that is accumulating a generous supply of moisture
drawn northward from the Gulf coast. A broad expanse of MVFR ceiling
is the result which is moving northward across southern Lower Mi
this afternoon. These clouds settle into IFR this evening with some
pockets of drizzle as the low level jet ramps up. Drizzle is better
added to the forecast as observational trends dictate, however the
IFR mention has plentiful support from the Ohio valley to the
Midwest.

A south to north break back into VFR follows across the area
late tonight and Tuesday morning as the system warm sector builds
into the region. Model projections capture the pattern reasonably
well and bring VFR ceiling up toward MBS during Tuesday morning. The
current MS valley moisture axis then feeds additional clouds into the
warm sector for sub 5000 ft VFR during the afternoon north of DTW.
Warm sector boundary layer mixing also leads to SW gusts near 30
knots from mid afternoon into Tuesday evening.

For DTW... MVFR ceiling solidifies this afternoon and then drops
into IFR this evening until a transition back to VFR late tonight or
early Tuesday morning. The VFR return is initially ceiling below
5000 ft which becomes scattered during Tuesday afternoon.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings 5000 ft or less this afternoon and tonight.
  Moderate to low Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

Initial stages of a more significant period of increasing upper
heights expected over the next 48 hours will occur today, as
shortwave energy overhead this morning vacates the region. Some
pockets of very light showers or virga evident on radar associated
with this wave and accompanying deeper mid level moisture will also
end. Organizing low pressure system as substantial height falls
occur across the plains will then draw a warm frontal boundary
across the region late today into tonight. Overall, moisture quality
remains quite limited despite some increase across the lower levels,
suggesting simply a lower end potential again for some spotty light
showers/sprinkles as broader ascent occurs along the advancing
frontal slope. Otherwise, main story early this week remains the
perpetuation of very mild conditions held under this pattern. The
elevated mean thickness field combined with a strengthening pattern
of warm air advection maintains above average temperatures thru at
least Wednesday. Warmest conditions expected Tuesday, with a peak in
the advective process within deepening southwest flow ensuring 850
mb temperatures push into the lower teens. This will bring afternoon
temperature to near record levels, with highs solidly in the mid
70s. Potential for minimum temperature Tuesday night to hold in the
60s.

Closed upper level circulation will gradually lift into the upper
Mississippi valley midweek. This will draw an attendant lead cold
front through lower Michigan Wednesday evening. Period of stronger
moisture transport as greater height falls edge into the region
ahead of the front, along with possible shortwave energy embedded
within the flow, will bring increasing potential for light shower
production during the daylight period. Frontal passage will provide
a secondary focus by late in the day. Outgoing forecast maintains a
high likelihood for light rain, but with rainfall totals generally
under quarter of an inch as the best forcing holds to the northwest
while more meaningful instability holds across the Ohio valley.

Occluding low pressure system centered over lake Superior at 12z
Thur morning will continue to weaken as the entire circulation
pivots across the region through Friday. Generally milder conditions
remain within the immediate post-frontal environment Thursday,
before the cooling trend brings a more seasonable thermal profile by
Friday and next weekend. General increasing in upward vertical
motion as the upper trough pivots through will maintain at least
lower chances for light rain development during this time.

MARINE...

Low pressure coming out of the Four Corners region will lift
northeast into the western Great Lakes late Tuesday. This will lead
to increasing southerly winds over the central Great Lakes, with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected over the open waters of Lake Huron
Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm air (lower teens at 850 MB) should keep
mixing depths in check, but brief isolated gusts above 30 knots cab
not be ruled. Enough moisture is expected to advect into the Great
Lakes region to support widespread showers on Wednesday.  Additional
scattered showers are possible on Thursday as cold cyclonic flow
behind the cold front kicks in. The low pressure looks to weaken as
it tracks  across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula on Thursday.
This should result in northwest to north winds staying under 25
knots Thursday night onto Friday. However, with the long northerly
fetch and cold air, waves building to 4 feet or greater over the
southern lake Huron basin are likely.

CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for November 3rd:

Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Flint:   79 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......SF
CLIMATE......TF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.