649
FXUS63 KDTX 020000
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
700 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and mostly cloudy through the early week.

- Near record warmth and breezy on Tuesday.

- Increasing likelihood for light rainfall on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

A surface low pivots toward the northern Plains tonight into Monday,
sending a warm front and subsequent low level moisture into the
Great Lakes Monday afternoon. As this occurs, winds veer from their
current southeast direction to the south. A more impactful
consequence of this is lowering ceilings, with ceilings reaching MVFR
by late afternoon and possibly IFR by 00z which is more likely for
southern terminals (DTW/YIP/DET). Current guidance suggests ceilings
will lower steadily and most aggressively between about 18z-00z,
which is slightly delayed compared to previous runs.

For DTW...Gulf moisture lifts into SE Michigan Monday afternoon,
bringing lowering ceilings to DTW. 5.0 kft ceilings are likely by
mid-afternoon, with potential for ceilings to drop to low MVFR or
IFR by Monday evening.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 ft early Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

DISCUSSION...

A background of rising geopotential heights dominates the forecast
over the next 24 hours as a longwave ridge builds in downstream of
an amplified Pacific wave tracking over the Rockies. A weak
disturbance embedded within the ridge is noted in WV imagery across
the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Apart from a few light
showers that will be possible near the Ohio border, this wave will
pass overhead with little fanfare tonight given continued dry
advection within light low-level southerly flow. Mid-level cloud
cover will remain prevalent, keeping temps mild in the mid 40s and
lower 50s for an overnight low.

Low pressure takes shape over the central/northern Plains on Monday
while SE MI remains under the stable influence of deep layer
ridging. There is a brief window for mostly sunny skies in the
morning, then a mid-level shortwave emanating from the low helps
usher in a ridge of sfc-700mb theta-e with increasing low cloud
cover in the afternoon. Ascent within the saturated layer is weak
but enough confidence exists to warrant a 15 to 30% chance of light
showers or drizzle Monday evening and overnight.

Another period of height rises ensues daytime Tuesday as the mid-
level wave closes off over the upper Midwest. This favors dry,
breezy, and very warm conditions on Tuesday as the upstream system
ushers in 850mb temps of 12 to 13C, which model soundings indicate
may be briefly mixed to. This sends highs into the mid 70s, some 15
degrees above normal and near daily max temp records. Latest NBM
advertises a 40% chance to exceed 75 degrees for much of SE MI.

The mature system`s warm conveyor belt inches in from the west early
Wednesday with models in agreement on light rainfall arriving by
late morning or early afternoon. 70 to 90% PoP looks good with
guidance in line with QPF on the order of 0.25". A narrow corridor
of weak instability will exist just ahead of the cold front
Wednesday evening, supportive of an isolated rumble of thunder. With
the later frontal passage, high temps Wednesday will again be very
mild in the lower 70s. By Thursday and Friday, progressively cooler
conditions settle in amidst scattered light showers as the occluded
low meanders over the region.

MARINE...

Low pressure coming out of the Four Corners region will lift
northeast into the western Great Lakes late Tuesday. This will lead
to increasing southerly winds over the central Great Lakes, with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected over the open waters of Lake Huron
Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm air (lower teens at 850 MB) should keep
mixing depths in check, but brief isolated gusts above 30 knots cab
not be ruled. Enough moisture is expected to advect into the Great
Lakes region to support widespread showers on Wednesday.  Additional
scattered showers are possible on Thursday as cold cyclonic flow
behind the cold front kicks in. The low pressure looks to weaken as
it tracks  across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula on Thursday.
This should result in northwest to north winds staying under 25
knots Thursday night onto Friday. However, with the long northerly
fetch and cold air, waves building to 4 feet or greater over the
southern lake Huron basin are likely.

CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for November 3rd:

Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Flint:   79 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......SF
CLIMATE......TF


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