078
FXUS63 KDTX 301911
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
311 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable conditions through Tuesday.

- Showers and thunderstorm potential increases Wednesday and Wed
night.

- Much cooler conditions return by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Extended stretch of generally benign weather conditions will persist
through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Resident environment
marked by deep layer stability held within dry low level conditions,
as upper heights build modestly atop a sprawling region of high
pressure. Existing thermal profile still edged on the cooler side of
average. Environment again conducive to greater radiational cooling
tonight, affording a Sunday morning dip in low temperature ranging
from low/mid 40s for the coldest locations to lower 50s within the
urban heat island of Detroit. The combination of full insolation and
modest height rises will contribute to a weak warming trend into
Sunday/Monday. Highs projected to arrive in the mid/upper 70s Sunday
and near 80 degrees for Labor Day. As low level flow shifts to an
easterly component in the wake of the departing high, this may
introduce a brief period of meaningful low level moisture flux off
lake Huron late Sunday night. Model signal does exist for some areas
of fog or very low stratus to emerge prior to daybreak Monday
morning, targeting mainly the thumb region.

Tranquil conditions hold through at least Tuesday, as loosely
organized upper ridging anchors overhead. Persistence within this
pattern offers an additional upward adjustment in temperatures by a
couple degrees, but with continued lower humidity given lack of
discernible sources of moisture transport at this stage. Notable
pattern change then in store for the latter half of the week.
Broader mid level troughing arrives Tue night-Wed, ahead of a more
dynamic wave of Canadian origin forecast to close off upon entry
into the great lakes to finish the week. Initial plume of higher
quality moisture to accompany the lead shortwave, bringing increasing
rain chances by late Wednesday. Depending on the pace of the trailing
feature and associated frontal dynamics, the greatest window for
shower/t-storm production will focus Wed night into early Thursday. A
noteworthy period of cold air advection by early September standards
then ensues Thursday into Friday, as a deep closed system migrates
across the region. This will translate into well below average
temperatures throughout this period, perhaps struggling to climb much
60 degrees depending on extent of diurnal stratocu. Potential for
unsettled condition to linger through next Saturday, with the
existing cyclonic flow and the possibility for additional shortwave
energy maintaining some shower chances with a focus during the
diurnal afternoon peak in lapse rates.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will continue to hold across the Great Lakes region
through the weekend and into early next week.  This will bring a
continuation to dry and tranquil marine conditions.  The next
chances for unsettled weather come back into play mid to late week
as a low pressure system and associated cold front approach the
region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

AVIATION...

High pressure centered over lower MI maintains light, largely
variable winds through the day. Diurnal cu holds around 5-6kft this
afternoon. Kept inherited SCT coverage though periods closer to BKN
are likely through at least the first half of the afternoon. Clouds
diminish with the loss of sun this evening setting up a clear or
mostly clear night. Some fog development is possible early
Sunday towards the central portions of the state.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms during the period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceilings at or below 5000ft early this afternoon, low
  by late afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......SS
AVIATION.....KDK

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at www.weather.gov/detroit.