869
FXUS63 KDTX 120836
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
336 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for some isolated rain showers today, most favorable within
  the Thumb.

- Breezy with gusts around 30 mph. Localized higher gusts up to 35-40
  mph in the Thumb.

- Warmer temperatures through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

At present, SE MI resides on the cyclonically sheared side of a
strong and elongated 120 knot jet core. This jet and tangential dpva
ribbon will move across SE MI this evening, which will then slow and
weaken as it becomes positioned overhead tonight. This setup is
favorable for the ongoing maintenance of extensive stratus under
northwest flow, which continue to advect in lake moisture beneath a
strengthening  low-level inversion. Spotty showers will also be
possible through the evening, most favorable through the Thumb, where
shallow convergence and better 0-2km theta-e lapse rates align. The
capped environment up to 10kft will limit any meaningful
precipitation production while daytime highs in the mid 40s ensure
all rain as the p-type. This environment continues to be a well mixed
one, which will bring breezy conditions during daylight hours with
wind gusts peaking around 30 mph. Localized higher gust potential
between 35-40 mph will be found within the Thumb, especially along
the lakeshore, given the west-northwest flow off of the lake.

The main moisture axis will pivot out of the state late tonight and
overnight with the arrival of the jet which will allow for cloud
cover to gradually thin and shift east as subsidence begins to build
in in the wake of the shortwave. Clearing trends will help
temperatures drop back below the freezing mark overnight with wind
chills in the mid 20s. A ridge of high pressure fills in through the
day tomorrow bringing a window to see some extended periods of
sunshine. The western fringe of the thermal trough will still hang
on which will hold temperatures in the upper 40s for most locations,
potentially hitting 50 near the border and through the Metro region.

Temperatures will continue to climb both Friday and Saturday as warm
air advection commences ahead of a longwave ridge that fills in
across the Plains. Warm air advection will accelerate through
Saturday ahead of an upper-level wave across the central Canadian
Provinces which will amplify through the Great Lakes during the
weekend. Prior to the arrival of the wave, 850mb will briefly peak
aoa 10C Saturday, which brings the chance to push temperatures into
the 60s for a greater portion of SE MI. Arrival of the wave and
associated low pressure system will then bring increasingly likely
chances for rain showers before drawing a cold front across the
region, returning temperatures back into the 40s early next week.

&&

.MARINE...

A low pressure system over Ontario has a cold front draped southward
through WI. The cold front passes through the area this morning
bringing another period of increased winds for the day but out of
the northwest. The background wind field aloft remain on the lower
side peaking around 35 to 40 knots and the thermal trough is also
not very cold cutting into instability and mixing depths. This
continues to be a marginal setup for northwesterly gales during the
daytime today so will hold off on any gale headlines. Wind gusts
around 30 knots will be likely across Lake Huron, with periodic gust
to gales. Nearshore zones, however, will see an extended period of
Small Craft Advisory conditions as several episodes of elevated
wind/wave action are expected through Thursday. Quieter conditions
then prevail to start the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

AVIATION...

Steady to slowly rising temperatures ahead of the Midwest warm front
combine with a boost from Lake Michigan to produce greater coverage
of MVFR ceiling during the late night. A stray patch of light rain
or drizzle also accompanies the front but with low predictability on
coverage or duration compared to cloud cover. MVFR continues along
and behind the cold front that is close behind and occludes just to
the east in Ontario by afternoon. Daytime heating then generates
increased low level lapse rate that helps lift ceiling to VFR below
5000 ft while also stirring up a few rain showers toward MBS. NW
wind increasing to gusts near 30 knots becomes the weather highlight
until both gusts and clouds diminish into Wednesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight and Wednesday
  morning.

* Low for exceeding crosswind threshold Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....BT


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