103
FXUS63 KDTX 100900
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
400 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold conditions this morning with wind chills down into the lower
  teens remaining cold this afternoon with highs in the low-mid 30s.

- Lighter lake effect snow showers continue mainly across the Thumb
  through this evening.

- Warming trend mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The more moderate lake effect snow showers have pulled east of the
eastern Thumb shorelines and thus cancelled the winter weather
advisory for the Thumb. Intervals of lighter lake effect snow
remains possible through the morning. The already cold temperatures
will continue to fall by another degree or two towards sunrise
reaching the low 20s. Combined these temperatures with the elevated
north winds and wind chills will bottom out near 10 degrees. Low to
mid 20s temperatures will also be sufficient to create slick spots
with residual moisture and/or snow on the roadways, especially on
bridges and overpasses. Cautious travel is advised this morning even
as snow has largely ended for most the forecast area.

The northerly winds and warm Lake Huron waters will continue to
churn out lake effect snow across the Thumb through this morning
into the early afternoon. The difference today will be the loss of
greater synoptic moisture as some drier air begins to filter into
the region. Surface dewpoints falling into the low to mid teens.
Soundings at Bad Axe still indicate steep lapse rates through the
DGZ with a saturated boundary layer, but convective depths have
shrunk below 10 kft. This environment should keep snowfall intensity
in check. Winds will also be backing towards the northwest
throughout the afternoon. This will bring about a transition from
Lake Huron moisture to great influence of the Lake Michigan moisture
flux for most of the area. Isolated to scattered light snow
showers/flurries can be expected this afternoon while ongoing lake
effect showers across the Thumb gradually get pushed offshore
towards the evening. The northwest flow will lead to a another
uptick in lake effect snow that may effect the north and eastern
portions of Huron County after 8 pm this evening if wind direction
remains favorable. Locations across the Thumb that can manage to
experience a longer duration of lake effect snow showers may see
accumulation up to 1-2 inches through this evening with greatest
potential across Huron County. Expecting minimal, if any,
accumulations, for remaining areas of southeast Michigan. Core of
the cold thermal trough will be centered over the central Great
Lakes this afternoon, which will only allow daytime highs to top out
in the low to mid 30s.

Tuesday will see a low amplitude ridge early in the day. Then a push
of warm advection along with convergence with low level jet may be
enough to trigger some light snow showers during the afternoon.
Expect some breezy conditions on Tuesday as mixing depths tap into
the stronger low level flow. Warm advection brings temperatures up
into the mid-upper 30s for most of the area with some locations
possibly reaching 40 degrees.

Ridging builds across the central plains and Midwest mid to late
week resulting in mostly quiet weather conditions with the exception
of scattered light precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Warm advection gains traction in the deeper southwest flow and will
bring temperatures up into the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday and
into the 50s for Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty N to NNE wind gradually backs to NW through the day as broad
low pressure tracks over New England and high pressure builds into
the Midwest. Wind magnitude will be on the order of 20 to 25 kt with
brief occasional gusts to 30 kt possible at times across southern
Lake Huron. This maintains high wave action across the southern
basin and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through today into
Tuesday. Scattered lake effect snow showers will persist through
this period as well.

Flow shifts to southwest on Tuesday in response to the upstream
ridge axis passing through, causing milder air to work back in. A
strong low-level jet will pass over parts of the central Great Lakes
late in the day into the evening. Increasingly stable thermodynamic
profiles will prevent the higher magnitude of wind aloft from
reaching the surface, but there is moderate confidence on gusts in
excess of 30 kt. Probability for gales remain too low for a Gale
Watch at this time. A cold front moves through on Wednesday,
sustaining a gusty W to NW flow pattern with scattered rain showers
through Thursday. A period of gales will be possible across parts of
Lake Huron Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure then brings
weaker, more variable wind for Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

AVIATION...

As the low level flow transitions toward the north overnight, some
lingering snow showers will continue to impact the terminals, aided
by some of the moisture flux off Saginaw Bay. Some partial to
perhaps full clearing during the morning is possible at the
terminals given the north flow trajectories off northern Lower Mi
and degree of ongoing dry air advection from. the north. A slightly
more northwesterly component to the low level winds by late morning
will hold the lake effect activity well east of the terminals on
Monday. Cold air advection and daytime boundary layer growth will
support northerly wind gusts around 20 knots Mon afternoon.

For DTW...While some lingering MVFR conditions in light snow showers
can be expected during the overnight, the overall trend into
daybreak will be for the more the lake effect snow showers to remain
focused east of metro airport.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight. Low Monday.

* High for precipitation type as snow tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ422.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....SC


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