117
FXUS63 KDTX 130833
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
333 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry today and Friday with a warming trend through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances rise Saturday and Saturday night.

- Cooler conditions return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Confluent flow aloft and the subsequent building ridge of high
pressure that pushes into southern Michigan today will bring about
dry conditions along with extended periods of sunshine. Some
residual cloud cover to hold on through the Thumb this morning tied
to the plume of lake moisture flowing in from Lake Superior-Huron,
but clouds will advect east and scour out as flow backs. While still
on the western fringe of the thermal trough, the coldest air now
resides well northeast of the Great Lakes. Coupled with sunshine,
temperatures are forecast to peak around 50 degrees through a
greater portion of the cwa, and slightly cooler within the Irish
Hills and Thumb.

Overnight, longwave ridge across the greater Plains will continue to
progress east as a southern wave streams over Baja California while
a second wave starts to amplify and progress into the central
Canadian Provinces. This will allow for the pseudostationary front
positioned across the Plains to accelerate east as a warm front,
which will bring progressively warmer temperatures to SE MI through
the end of the week. An elevated warm front will progress over the
cwa Friday morning which will bring a small window for some
thickening cloud cover along with sprinkles or very light and
fleeting showers. Antecedent dry conditions and lack of sufficient
column moisture precludes any mention of measurable precipitation
for this time frame. The boost in waa and clearing of any early day
cloud cover will allow temperatures to push through the 50 degree
mark for daytime highs. As the northern stream wave accelerates south
into the northern Great Lakes, the warm airmass over the Plains will
fold into Michigan with 850 temperatures peaking around 10C between
12Z Sat - 18Z Sat, correlating to daytime highs in the 60s.

A strengthening low pressure system and lagged cold front does bring
the chance for rain showers Saturday afternoon and evening, but with
ill defined structure under a well capped environment, rain
efficiency will be on the lower side. Ensemble qpf ranging between
.1" to .2" for total rain accumulation. Mid-level lapse rates will
be quite steep around 7.5C/km, so while instability is lacking, a
rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. caa quickly ramps in in the
wake of the front, returning temperatures back into the 40s for a
high and 20s for a low early next week. Unsettled conditions remain
possible through the week but predictability is low at this time as
Michigan will be within the vicinity of a baroclinic zone, but any
sort of overrunning potential can be modulated from a polar high
that will attempt to push into the Great Lakes through the middle of
the week.

&&

.MARINE...

This morning will feature some stronger winds and wind gust
potential aligned through north to central Lake Huron, where the
cooler northwest flow aligns. Periodic gusts to gales continues to be
possible through the mid-morning hours, but will preclude the
issuance of a short-fused Gale Warning as high pressure is expected
to build later this morning, diminishing wind speeds.

Winds slowly but steadily weaken through the day as high pressure
gradually builds into the central Great Lakes. Despite this, Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through the morning around the tip
of the Thumb due to lingering elevated waves. Said high drifts over
the Great Lakes through Friday night maintaining drier weather and
lighter winds. Next low tracking over northern Ontario is set to
swing a cold front through the region Saturday bringing rain-snow
chances back to the area. Trailing cold airmass looks to be stronger
then the one Wednesday supporting a good shot (~60-70%) at seeing NW
gales Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

AVIATION...

The western fringe of the VFR mid level cloud field tied to Quebec
low pressure continues to graze SE Mi late tonight, mainly toward
FNT and MBS. This occurs over westerly low level wind carrying dry
and slightly cooler air into the region that is able to deactivate
clouds from Lake Michigan. Clear sky holds toward DTW in this setup
during the night while a shallow cumulus component is indicated
again north of FNT as daytime heating builds during Thursday. This
is accompanied by NW wind gusting to around 20 knots through the
afternoon into Thursday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LHZ422-
     442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.