082
FXUS63 KDTX 030802
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
302 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and breezy today with near record high temperatures and gusty
winds up to 30 mph.

- Mild conditions continue Wednesday with light rain likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A period of high magnitude warmth by early November standards set to
emerge over the next 24 hours. This development driven by increasing
depth of southerly flow within an increasing upper level height
field. This occurs in response to the establishment and gradual
northeast ejection of a deep closed low now over the central plains.
Early day low cloud will give way to a mix of sun and clouds today
as the existing warm front surges north of the area and associated
warm air advection strengthens with time. A modestly mixed profile
will certainly support peak afternoon readings well into the 70s -
nearing record territory of mid 70s most locations. Some gustiness
to the prevailing south flow expected, peaking in excess of 30 mph
at times. Very mild conditions to prevail into tonight, as readings
struggle to dip much below 60 degrees - a solid 20 degrees above
average.

Aforementioned closed mid level system forecast to slowly lift from
the central plains to near Lake Superior thru Thursday. Greater
northward moisture transport occurs within the belt of deeper
southerly flow immediately downstream and out ahead of the attendant
cold front, with the northern extent reaching southeast Michigan by
early Wednesday. While better moisture quality may tend to hold
across the Ohio valley, this process will bring an increasing
probability for light shower development throughout the daylight
period. Mild resident thermal profile still entrenched with shower
potential simply taking the edge off slightly relative to the peak
noted Tuesday. Highs upper 60s to near 70 degrees, with gusty
southerly conditions again reaching 30 mph at times. Cold front
moves through Wednesday night, offering another window for some
frontally forced pockets of showers to develop.

Area settles within the dry slot for Thursday as the system slowly
occludes to the northwest. Modest cold air advection initially with
low level flow still out of the southwest, leaving temperatures
still above average during the day. A strong mid level wave of polar
origin will dig southward into the existing height fall center as
the entire trough axis pivots thru the area Thursday night into
Friday. An uptick in shower production plausible with a model signal
for some degree of fgen to emerge as the secondary frontal zone sags
southeast beneath the parent upper trough. Notably cooler and
potentially unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend period, as
the existing upper trough exits while a trailing wave anchors the
next shot for meaningful rain toward the end of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...

Broad low pressure consolidates over the western Great Lakes tonight
before occluding on Wednesday. This system directs moderate
southerly wind across the region today into tomorrow, though the
inbound warm air will result in increasing low-level stability over
the lakes that will limit the higher magnitude wind from mixing
down. Gusts to 25 kt are expected over the open waters of Lake
Huron, while the nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt
given shorter fetch. Similar conditions persist into Wednesday with
a slight uptick in wind speed while wind direction backs to
southeast. This will likely necessitate a Small Craft Advisory along
the Thumb shoreline as wave heights build over 4 feet. A cold front
brings high coverage of light showers across the area late in the
day and into Wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind
the front. The weakening low pressure slowly meanders across the
western Great Lakes on Thursday before a stronger cold front tracks
southward across the region on Friday. This brings moderate north
and northeast winds that shift northwest by Saturday, as well as
additional light rainfall.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for November 3rd:

Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Flint:   79 Degrees (Set in 2015)
Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

AVIATION...

Elongated area of low pressure over central CONUS continues to
govern conditions across the airspace overnight into Tuesday.
Widespread MVFR ceilings have started to flirt with IFR, with a more
cohesive plume of IFR upstream and lifting into SE Michigan. Dry air
however is observed over Indiana and will begin to eat into the IFR
ceilings by 09z at DTW/DET/YIP up to MBS by around 12z. Models are
aggressive in drying the low levels with the expectation for low VFR
ceilings by daybreak for most of the airspace. Arrival of the
surface warm front Tuesday morning veers winds to the southwest with
strengthening gradient bringing sustained wind speeds toward 15
knots by mid-day. Low VFR continues to erode through the day,
resulting in at least partial clearing by afternoon.

For DTW...MVFR ceilings have been flirting with IFR over the past
couple of hours, with a broader area of IFR upstream that is on
track to reach DTW around 06z. Drier air is pushing north into
Indiana, with time of arrival tools and model guidance suggesting an
aggressive drying trend to bring ceilings back to MVFR/low VFR
between 09z-12z. Ceilings are then forecast to lift above 5000 feet
by Tuesday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings 5000 ft or less tonight. Moderate Tuesday
  morning becoming low Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......TF
CLIMATE......TF
AVIATION.....MV

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