615
FXUS63 KDTX 300349
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1149 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures persist into the upcoming weekend,
although a gradual warming trend will commence Saturday.

- Dry conditions expected through Labor Day and into the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Surface high pressure overhead will result in light and variable wind
tonight. Prior moisture fluxing off of the Great Lakes may keep a
few patches of VFR cloud around the region overnight. No real signal
in the model soundings for any fog at daybreak, but a small
potential exists particularly at those taf sites outside of the urban
heat island. Surface high pressure and dry airmass will perpetuate
VFR conditions Saturday.


For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms during the period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

DISCUSSION...

Seasonably cool conditions entrenched locally late this afternoon,
as a minimum in mean thickness glances across the region under
prevailing mid level northwest flow on the backside of high
amplitude troughing centered over the east coast. Drying profile
under this pattern will translate into reduced cloud coverage and
open the door for a more sizable nocturnal cooling response tonight,
as high pressure builds in. Lows Saturday morning targeting a
broader distribution in readings throughout the 40s - or a solid 10-
15 degrees below average.

Deep layer stability held within existing low level ridging offers
an extended stretch of benign weather throughout the upcoming
holiday weekend period. Limited moisture quality throughout the
column lends to a high degree of insolation potential overall.
Gradual moderation of the cooler resident thermal profile with time
under full sunshine and modest upper height rises. This lands
afternoon temperatures invof of average by the back half the
weekend, with highs of mid to upper 70s. Favorable radiational
cooling environment maintains well below normal temperatures at
night. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s.

MARINE...

A high pressure system will settle over the Great Lakes today and
will hold steady through the weekend. This will alleviate wind
speeds through the day, leading to more tranquil conditions into
early next week. The next chance for more active conditions will
enter during the mid to late week timeframe as a low pressure/cold
front nears the Great Lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......AM


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