650
FXUS63 KDTX 031907
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
307 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually moderate to above normal through mid week.
  By late week, very warm and humid conditions return.

- Hazy skies remain likely through Monday due to Canadian wildfire smoke.

- Mostly dry weather anticipated through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure continues to dominate across the region, with light
winds, diurnal cumulus, and the continuation of hazy skies as
wildfire smoke continues to pivot across the region. Some of this
smoke does appear to be making it down to the surface leading to air
quality concerns. Tomorrow through Tuesday, another area of high
pressure drop southeast across Ontario, helping to reinforce and
bring an slight uptick to easterly flow. It will take some time for
the lingering wildfire smoke to depart the area, so it does appear
we will be dealing with lingering air quality issues through at
least tomorrow. A few high-res models attempt to develop a few
pockets of diurnal convection late Monday and Tuesday afternoon,
especially near lake breeze boundaries, but there is little to no
shear within the column to help support or maintain updrafts. Thus,
have maintained a dry forecast for now.

As we progress through the middle/end of the week, the heat and
humidity gradually return as high pressure gradually moves over the
Northeast and return flow slowly works back into the region.
Southeast lower Michigan is far removed from any main large-scale
synoptic features, so precipitation chances remain quite low. If we
do see any convective activity this week, it will likely be tied to
transient mesoscale features and/or lake breeze boundaries.

&&

.MARINE...

Quiet weather continues through mid week as high pressure lingers
over the region. Winds will be light and variable today before
becoming easterly on Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

AVIATION...

High pressure maintains mostly clear skies and light to variable
winds through the rest of today and tonight. A few to scattered VFR
cumulus has developed this afternoon mostly concentrated across FNT
and MBS, which are the only noteworthy clouds. Otherwise, wildfire
smoke persists into tonight across Michigan with periodic reductions
in visibility down to 5-6 miles.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the
duration of the TAF period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....AA


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