622
FXUS63 KDTX 102015
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
315 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s tonight.

- A reinforcing shot of arctic air will arrive this weekend, sending
wind chill readings into the single digits. Sub zero wind chills are
expected Sunday morning.

- There is a chance for a warming trend during the end of the
forecast period; Tuesday into next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remnant mid level deformation associated with the departing upper
wave will continue to rapidly weaken during the remainder of the
afternoon as slight mid level ridging/brief mid level negative
vorticity advection takes hold. This will bring an end to residual
precip by early evening. Ongoing post frontal cold air advection
within the gusty NNW winds will send temps into the 20s this
evening, likely resulting in freezing of untreated wet surfaces. The
advisories will be expired at 4 PM, with any potential evening
freeze up being addressed through special weather statements.

Cold air advection will persist through the night under continued
northwest winds. A closed mid level low over NE Ontario will track
into srn Quebec by Thurs afternoon. The circulation associated with
this feature is what is driving the colder back across the region.
Lake effect activity within the northwest flow tonight will largely
remain out of Se Mi aside from a few stray snow showers into the
thumb. The low level flow will back more westerly on Thursday.
Limited inversion heights and an overall dry ambient airmass across
srn Lake Mi will inhibit snow shower activity into se Mi. The
expectation for at least some strato cu under the inversion and
given 925mb temps forecast around -9C will warrant forecast highs
mainly in the mid to upper 20s.

Model solutions all indicate a good feed of Pacific moisture
tracking from the Canadian Rockies into the Ohio Valley Friday into
Saturday along the upper jet axis. A couple of short waves embedded
within the flow and along a decent baroclinic zone will support at
least a couple rounds of snow for mainly the Ohio Valley Thurs
night, then again Saturday/Saturday night. Recent model runs have
trended farther south with these systems, suggesting only a low
chance that the northern edge of these system will brush the
southern portions of Se Mi. An elongated upper low is forecast to
advance across the northern lakes Fri night into Saturday. The lead
edge of the mid level height falls will pass over Lower Mi Friday
night. A brief interval of deep layer moisture moisture along a weak
surface front and Lake Mi enhancement will support the next chance
for show Friday night into Saturday morning. A brief interval of
higher intensity snow showers off Lake Mi is possible late Fri
night/Saturday morning before much drier air limits the inland
extend of lake enhancement. Forecast amplification of this upper low
across the Great Lakes over the weekend is expected to drive arctic
air across the region. This will warrant well below normal
temperatures (with single digit and some sub zero wind chills) which
will last into Monday. Medium range model and probabilistic guidance
suggests a more notable warming trend possible Tues into Wed of next
week.

&&

.MARINE...

Low pressure has pushed through the area and is now located over
Lake Ontario. The low pulled a cold front through this afternoon
which allowed a cold airmass to surge in behind the front within the
northwesterly flow causing a period of Gales across southern Lake
Huron and the connecting nearshore zones. Though the general trend
late this afternoon has been for less frequent gusts to gales, there
are still enough observations to keep the Gale Warning in effect as
we head into the evening hours to which we`ll revisit this evening
to see if we can cancel them a little early. Waves will continue to
remain elevated through the overnight and into Thursday so we`ll
have to transition to Small Craft Advisories at some point. Surface
ridge building in for Thursday evening/night will lead to much
lighter winds, which should linger into Friday as a wave of low
pressure track through the Ohio Valley. None-the-less, an Arctic
front is on track to move through Friday night, with sporadic gusts
to gales possible over Lake Huron during the weekend as 850 MB temps
plummet to -20 C, supporting snow squalls and freezing spray as
well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

AVIATION...

A cold front is actively dropping across the airspace, postioned
between PTK and DTW at issuance. Behind this front, snow has picked
back up to a moderate intensity resulting in cig/vsby restrictions
and minor additional accumulations around an inch or less. Wind
gusts within the frontal zone are also pushing 30 knots with a
northwesterly direction. The front brings in much colder
temperatures to the airspace through the evening, with a rapid
freeze of any residual liquid expected. Trends overnight are drier,
although there is a signal for lake effect streamers from the Lake
Superior-Lake Michigan connection to at least maintain mixed
coverage of MVFR-low VFR and light snow showers over the Saginaw
Valley region. Northwest flow backs to the west by early Thursday
morning, with drier weather and continued MVFR-low VFR ceilings
expected to end the TAF period.

For DTW...Ongoing light rain will pick up intensity as a cold front
drops through the area between 19-21z, with a full transition to wet
snow expected. With temperatures currently in the mid-30s, snow will
melt on contact with warm ground with about a half inch of new snow
accumulation possible by 21z. Light snow tapers off this evening,
but a rapid drop in temperatures into the low 20s is expected with
any leftover liquid on surfaces expected to freeze.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through early Wednesday
  morning. Medium Wednesday morning onward.

* High for precipitation type transition from rain to snow between
  19-21z.

* Moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold from 300-330 direction
  through 00z this evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ422.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Thursday for LHZ363-462>464.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....MV


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