Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FGUS73 KDTX 131549
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-201200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1150 PM EST Thu Mar 13 2025
...2025 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...
The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland 24.0 25.0 28.0 7 19 6 15 <5 6
Shiawassee River
Owosso 7.0 9.0 10.0 19 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison 10.0 11.0 12.0 11 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Flint River
Flint 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cass River
Cass City 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Vassar 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Frankenmuth 17.0 20.0 25.0 23 37 <5 10 <5 <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw 17.0 19.0 24.0 14 24 <5 11 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Clinton River
Clinton Twp 16.0 17.0 19.0 10 13 <5 5 <5 <5
Mt Clemens 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
River Rouge
Detroit 15.0 18.0 20.0 18 28 <5 5 <5 <5
Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lower Rouge River
Dearborn 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mill Creek
Dexter 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 9 <5 7 <5 5
Huron River
Hamburg 7.0 7.5 8.0 7 28 <5 13 <5 10
Ann Arbor 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Adrian 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Blissfield 683.0 685.0 687.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dundee 650.0 652.0 653.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
Monroe 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
...PAST PRECIPITATION...
This Winter for southeast Michigan has been drier then normal both
precipitation and snowfall. Overall temperatures have averaged slightly
above normal.
...RIVER CONDITIONS... Most rivers are flowing around or slightly
above average base flow for this time of year. Recent warm up has lead
to rivers mostly ice free except for shoreline ice in spots.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Upper zone of soil is running above average with moisture due to the total
snowmelt of the pack. Frost depth vary quite a bit in short distances with
the deepest still running around a foot. Ground thaw has been occuring
and ranges from surface in sheltered spots to about a half a foot down.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
The snow pack across southeast Michigan is about all gone except for some spots
in the Thumb and far northern Saginaw Valley where any water equivalent in
the snow pack is insignificant.
...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 8-14 days calls for above average temperatures and
and above normal precipitation. The outlook for the rest of Spring is for above
normal temperatures and normal precipitation.
...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
Current conditions so far this Winter yields a below average chance for moderate
or significant flooding due to below average snow pack this winter and an absent of
current snow pack. Any flooding threats now will be driven by excessive rain events.
This is the last scheduled Spring Flood Potential Outlook 2025.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX
$$
DRC