406
FXUS63 KDVN 251143
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
543 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of the area
  through mid/late morning.

- Strong cold front remains on track to sweep through the area
  late this afternoon into early tonight, bringing much colder
  temperatures for mid to late week.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the outlook area from
  late tonight into Wednesday. West to northwest wind gusts
  between 40 to 50 mph are expected.

- A wintry system is possible late Friday into the weekend, with
  additional systems beyond that, making for a busy weather
  pattern. Uncertainty remains with the timing and impacts from
  the weekend system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas of fog, dense at times will continue through this morning
across the outlook area. Conditions will be slow to improve
with a weak area of low pressure over the region leading to
light and variable winds, and little boundary layer mixing.

This Afternoon Through Wednesday:

A potent shortwave will track from the Northern Plains into the
Midwest today, leading to a deepening surface low across
Wisconsin into the northern Great Lakes region. This system will
drag a strong cold front through eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois late this afternoon into early tonight, resulting in
windy conditions overnight through Wednesday with gusts between
40 to 50 mph. These values are slightly below the NBM 50th
percentile max gusts, so some 50+ mph gusts may be possible.
Forecast HRRR/RAP soundings show 50+ kts near the top of the
mixed layer (~850-900mb) late tonight through Wednesday AM.
Continued mixing in the boundary layer, combined with
isentropic downglide in strong low-level cold air advection
should result in efficient downward momentum transfer to the
surface. Thus confidence is high on peak gusts exceeding 45 mph
for most of the outlook area, with the highest chances for 50+
mph to the north of I-80. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
entire outlook area, except for far NE Missouri, for late
tonight and through most of Wednesday.

The strong winds will advect a much colder air mass into the
region, leading to early Wednesday AM wind chills in the teens.
For high temperatures, expect a significant drop from the
low/mid 50s today to the mid/upper 30s on Wednesday. There is
also potential for some light snow across the north tonight,
especially north of I-80 as moisture wraps around to the
soutwest of the compact surface low/trough shifting across
Wisconsin. QPF amounts will remain light; however, with
temperatures falling below freezing, minor accumulations of a
dusting to under 1 inch are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving and Friday: It will continue to be on the chilly
side, with low temperatures each morning in the teens to lower
20s. Coupled with the winds, wind chills will fall to the teens
area-wide, and even some single digits are possible across our
north. However, this period looks to stay dry.

We continue to monitor a wintry system slated to move through
the area Friday night through the Thanksgiving weekend, which
could bring widespread accumulating snow to the region. There
remains a lot of uncertainty on how this system will evolve as
there are questions about where the baroclinic zone will set up
and on the track and strength of the surface low. For the late
Friday night into Saturday night period, the NBM 24-hr
probabilities for 1" or more of snow are between 60% - 90%, and
for 2"+ between 50% - 70%. Make sure to keep up with the latest
forecast if you have travel plans this weekend as we will be
able to provide more specifics over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Forecast remains on track with poor aviation conditions
expected today with low overcast and areas of fog, dense at
times. The low ceilings and dense fog will lead to periods of
LIFR/VLIFR this morning, and minimal low-level mixing will
result in a slow improvement in ceilings and visibilities
through late AM into the afternoon, with an eventual return to
MVFR anticipated. DBQ may be the exception, holding on to IFR
through the afternoon. A cold front set to move through in the
late afternoon and evening will bring strong W/NW wind gusts
tonight (35-40+ kts).

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
     IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
     ILZ015-024>026-034-035.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-016>018.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech/Schultz
AVIATION...Uttech