043
FXUS63 KDVN 021916
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
216 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to produce hazy
  skies through the weekend, with an Air Quality Alert
  remaining in effect for Iowa through tonight. Otherwise temps
  on the comfortable side for this time of year, continue
  through Sunday.

- Gradual temp moderation through the 80s next week, and
  possibly some 90s by Thursday and Friday. There will be at
  least some low rain chances (20 percent) at times.&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Tonight...LLVL ridge will continue to maintain acrs the area and
into the GRT LKS. Fcst soundings show a light sfc wind regime under
a shallow inversion at around H95 MB, and think there may be at
least some patchy fog developing or fog/smoke particle combo after
midnight. It may mainly be in river valleys and low lying drainage
type locations, and will keep mention going late tonight. Another
seasonably cool night tonight with temps dipping down into the low
to mid 50s.

Sunday...Some chance for some lower level smoke to get sloshed back
westward in LLVl easterly flow under the inversion, but currently
the concentrations seem will be weaker and it may be a day with
smoke opaqueness more noticeable mainly aloft again. High temps in
the upper 70s to around 80 for most of the local area. More lows in
the 50s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Monday and Tuesday...As the GRT LKS ridge weakens and slides
eastward, temps will start the day by day moderation process into
the mid weak. This while ensemble mass field trends show another
upstream ridge building acrs the eastern Rockies. This pattern flux
may allow for a northern high plains short wave(or portion of one)
to slip down acrs portions of the area allowing for some afternoon
heating pop-up showers and storms on Tuesday. But coverage looks low
at this time.

Wednesday through Friday...Continuing with the medium range
ensembles, they generally agree with the eastward migration and
establishment of an upstream thermal ridge acrs the plains to the MS
RVR Valley mid to late week. Besides allowing a new warming regime
back to the hot and humid conditions by Thursday, we will again be
close to the ridge-associated Ring of Fire on it`s northern and
northeast periphery this period. Thus more POPs a warranted as we
potentially have storm clusters or systems developing acrs the
northern plains and then propagate into or close to the DVN CWA
especially at night and into the early morning periods.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Haze and smoke VSBY restrictions should rise to VFR levels for
most of the area this afternoon, but still with some lingering
pockets of MVFR VSBYs. Ambient CU at VFR levels flowing in from
the east, should dissipate diurnally around sunset, making for
just smoke and cirrus aloft for tonight. There may be a combo of
smoke and fog VSBY restrictions to MVFR levels at a few of the
sites after midnight, but then expect improvement by mid Sunday
morning with an increase of east to southeasterly sfc winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12