020
FXUS63 KDVN 271917
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
217 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will settle in today and bring a period of
  quiet and dry weather through Monday.

- Another active weather pattern will set up in the middle of
  the upcoming work week, bringing the potential for rounds of
  showers and storms. Heavy rainfall may accompany these storms.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal norms
  through the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Spotty light rain across the far western and southwest counties
will continue to decrease in coverage through this afternoon as
forcing aloft wanes. High pressure will gradually build southward
into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions into
Monday. For tonight, expect lows in the 50s across eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois with some patchy fog possible. Then for
Monday, a very nice early fall day is expected with highs in the
low to mid 70s, light winds, and continued dry conditions!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The persistent trof over the eastern CONUS will start to break down
through the first half of the work week, with the ridge that has
been locked in place overhead finally starting to track easterly. As
this shifts east, upper level flow becomes southwesterly as a trof
digs into the southwestern CONUS. This long fetch of southwesterly
flow will have a connection to the Eastern Pacific, where we
have tropical systems in place. This pattern will help guide
these systems northeast into the central CONUS, serving as a
moisture conveyor into the region. Not only will this help
supply moisture to the region, but llvl southerly/southwesterly
flow will usher Gulf moisture in as well. Thus, an anomalously
moist airmass will be in place through mid week, with PWATS
between 1.50-2.00" moving in.

The wave over the Rockies will also guide bouts of energy into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley, with a baroclinic zone setting up
nearby and serving as a focal point for precipitation chances. Thus,
with plenty of moisture and forcing moving into the area,
precipitation chances will be on the rise again. The first round
of showers and storms may work into parts of the area as early
as Tuesday night, with persistent PoPs remaining through
Wednesday and Thursday. There remains much uncertainty with the
individual storm tracks and timing though, with the location of
the baroclinic zone also uncertain. Thus, will largely message
that we will see chances for showers/storms through at least the
middle of next week, with the potential for heavy rainfall as
well. As such, the WPC has highlighted our area in a Day 4 Slight
Risk, level 2 of 4, for Excessive Rainfall and localized Flash
Flooding. Stay tuned on upcoming forecasts for updates on timing
and potential amounts as confidence increases. Late week and
into the weekend, guidance favors a continuation of the active
weather, with PoPs persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through the period, along with light
winds. A weak system that brought light rain to parts of the
area this morning will continue to drift to the south through
this afternoon. Low/mid-level clouds are anticipated at CID
through tonight, but are likely to stay at VFR (4000-8000 ft
AGL). Patchy shallow fog is possible late tonight into early
Monday AM with low confidence on direct impacts to the terminals
this far out.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Uttech