875
FXUS63 KDVN 100756
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active pattern looks to continue for much of the upcoming
  week with the local area in the battle ground between the
  heat dome and northern flanking storm track. This will make
  for storm chances in or near the local area every day of the
  upcoming week. Marginal to Slight Risk areas ride across the
  region through at least Wednesday.

- Depending on storms and cloud cover, much of the area will be
  flirting with Heat Advisory criteria through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Today...Besides some festering elevated showers and a few storms
from the current northwest MO activity drifting acrs the southern
third to half of the DVN CWA this morning to midday, upper level
short wave ridging pressing acrs the area may allow for the DVN CWA
to be in-between the main action zones. That being said, ongoing 30-
40 KT effective shear profiles and another day of very high CAPEs
building by late afternoon suggests an isolated strong to severe
storm will still be possible today into this evening, especially
with lingering quasi-stationary weak west-to-east oriented sfc front
undulating acrs IA into northern IL. If something goes near the
front, all modes of severe possible including tornadoes. But again an
overall lower POP day in between the better forcing and mid level
jet streaks.

Temps will be challenging today taking into account convective
debris, weak sfc flow, and boundaries acrs the area. In general will
go with a lot of mid to upper 80s, and sfc DPTs in the mid to upper
70s. This will make for heat index readings from the mid 90s to near
100 degrees, with isolated pockets over 100. For now this a bit too
marginal for a widespread Heat Advisory issuance now, but if we get
more sun for longer than expected helping ambient temps to warm 1-3
degrees more, a short fuse Heat Advisory may still be needed
especially along and south of I-80.

Tonight...Much of the evening may be capped, quiet, and storm free,
but eyes will be on the next upstream short wave and several MCS
generation parameters coming together out acrs the northern plains
and MO RVR Valley. Timing and propagation path of the resultant storm
complex still uncertain, but there could be a feature rolling into
the western or northwestern DVN CWA just before dawn Tue morning. A
few slower model solutions are a bit slower with the MCS arriving
more mid Tue morning or so. But in any case even with the morning
timing this feature may be capable of severe weather and heavy
rainfall. An earlier arrival and exit may have the feature really
going severe later Tue morning and into the day off to the east and
southeast of the local area. A later arrival Tue morning will mean
more trouble for the home team and damaging winds here. Will have to
watch further runs in handling the parent wave of this feature for
more confidence/certainty.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tuesday...May initially be active if the Monday night-Tue morning
shortwave and MCS verifies, but after that feature exits the rest of
Tue and Tue night may be mainly dry or at risk for only an isolated
storm. Current NBM loaded temps and DPTs are hot and very humid for
Tuesday and easily supportive of heat headlines. But again there is
much uncertainty on convective trends, and cloud debris/storm
outflow interfering with the ambient temps and how much afternoon
time there would be for recovery. Will still message the potential
but make heat headline issuance a day by day process for now.

Wednesday through Sunday...Medium range ensembles and upper jet
patterns show the main upper ridge bulge trying to press it`s way
eastward acrs the southern plains and low to mid MS RVR Valley mid
to late week. This process may try to shunt the main storm track
more off just to the north of the local area, or if it stalls some
keep us in the bullseye of continued daily ring of fire late week
and even into the weekend. The temperature battle will continue as
well with LLVL baroclinicity and thermal ribbon wavering acrs the
region for high heat or not so bad depending on the daily flux. Will
keep the idea if this pattern holds, there could be quite a bit of
rainfall build up over the week from the west central plains, acrs
IA/IL and over to the eastern OH RVR Valley. It`s still early, but
currently Thu night looks like a potentail heavy rainfall MCS night
in the area especially south of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Will have to watch for patchy fog overnight into Monday morning,
but otherwise a VFR period until more sctrd elevated showers and
thunderstorms try to move in from the west mainly mid morning
through early afternoon and these may mainly effect the BRL and
MLI TAF sites. There is a 20-40 percent chance for an isolated
strong to severe storm Monday with high wind gusts and heavy
rainfall reduced VSBYs as they pass by. Then possibly a lull
precip period from late afternoon and for most of the rest of
the TAF fcst time through 06z. With a weak generally oriented
west- to-east sfc front wavering through the area, sfc winds
will be mainly light and variable except to the south of it
mainly for BRL with south to southwest winds of 5-10 KTs
Monday. Late tonight into Monday morning some marginal LLVL wind
shear at 2K FT AGL of 30-35 KTs.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12