206
FXUS63 KDVN 031141
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
541 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A large storm system will continue to move through the region
  today and Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall and breezy
  southerly winds.

- Isolated severe storms, with a low but non-zero chance of a
  brief tornado, are possible this afternoon, mainly over
  portions of southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois and
  all of northeast Missouri.

- As the system departs, cooler conditions are expected, and
  spotty rain showers will be possible at times through Thursday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our rainy and windy storm system continues to translate eastward
early this morning, which will continue to support chance of showers
(80-100% coverage) and isolated thunderstorms and gusty south-
southeast winds today. An amplified upper-level trough, which can be
seen very well on the latest GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery
over the southern Plains, will lift a PVA maxima/shortwave impulse
towards our region today, providing the large-scale forcing for more
showers and isolated storms. We can see a complex of showers and
isolated storms along the Missouri/Kansas border, which will slowly
lift northeastward along with the shortwave. As we`ve mentioned over
the last several days, moisture content with this system is very
high for this time of the year, with 1.66" Pwats off the DVN 03.00z
sounding. This is well over the daily max value per the SPC sounding
climatology for this time of the year, so any showers/storms that
develop today will be efficient rainfall producers.

Rain today looks to come in two primary rounds: 1) around sunrise
this morning with the ongoing activity near the Kansas City metro,
and 2) this afternoon as a surface low currently over central Kansas
approaches the area. Some thunderstorms will be possible at times
with each round, with a bit more attention given to the afternoon
activity as this could generate some strong to severe storms ahead
of the surface low. The convective parameter space shows some decent
0-3 km CAPE values around 100-150 J/kg per some guidance, with some
decent shear profiles due to both a mid- and low-level jet in place.
Both the HRRR and RRFS suggest sufficient low-level curved
hodographs, so enough low-level shear exists to support a tornado
threat. With this said, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk, level 1
of 5, of severe storms for portions of southeast Iowa, west-central
Illinois, and all of northeast Missouri. In addition to the showers
and storms, it should also be a breezy day, thanks to a tight
surface pressure gradient in place ahead of the approaching surface
low. South-southeast winds will be gusting around 25 to 35 mph in
most locations. Forecast highs are in the middle to upper 60s today,
thanks to the persistent southerly winds.

Showers and isolated storms will likely continue (60-90% coverage)
into the evening hours tonight before the main shortwave lifts out
of the area after midnight tonight. As it does an upper-level closed
low will develop within the primary trough, meaning the trough
progression will slow down. We will continue to see cloudy skies
Wednesday, along with some occasional showers (20-50% chances) as we
remain under the general cyclonic flow around the closed upper low.
Subtle cold air advection will also support some continued wind
gusts, although not as strong as today, with gusts around 20 to 25
knots. High temperatures are forecast to dip into the middle to
upper 50s for Wednesday, thanks to the cloud cover and occasional
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The latter half of the work week will start off on a cloudy note
Wednesday night through Thursday, due to the continued cyclonic flow
over the region. Some guidance suggests we could even see some
sunshine Thursday, but with the upper-level system/cyclonic flow
still in place, I`ve leaned towards a mostly cloudy forecast. Some
occasional showers also remain possible. Things look to finally dry
out by Friday as an area of high pressure and upper-level ridging
develops. We appear more likely to see some peeks of sunshine by
then.

As we look ahead towards the upcoming weekend into early next week,
there`s not much of note, thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge
that`s progged to develop over the Intermountain West states. This
will help block any shortwaves from translating over our region,
resulting in a dry forecast. Average to slightly above average
temperatures will be common during this time frame, with highs in
the middle to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

There is an initial round of showers and thunderstorms lifting
across the area this morning and impacting all TAF sites with
MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible at all TAF sites through 15 UTC with higher confidence
in TSRA at KCID, KBRL, and KMLI where tempo groups were used.
Ceilings across the area are generally 1 to 2 kft and are
expected to remain MVFR through the period with occasional IFR
in the strongest showers and thunderstorms. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible this afternoon especially at KMLI and
KBRL. There will be south winds of 10 to 20 knots and gusts up
to 28 knots especially through this morning with gusts up to 25
knots possible the remainder of the day. Showers are forecast
to slowly exit the area from west to east after 03 UTC
Wednesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Cousins