027
FXUS63 KDVN 150830
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
230 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak wave brings brief light snow to nw IL this evening.

- A short-lived warming trend begins today through the end of
  the work week, with the probability of highs above 40 degrees
  on Friday now greater than 60 percent.

- An arctic air mass returns this weekend and into next week,
  with high probabilities (>70%) of below normal temperatures
  and wind chills below -20 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Today...Plenty of sunshine this morning then giving way to
increasing clouds from the nw this afternoon. Temperatures will
be warmer than yesterday thanks to a southwest wind. Highs
should push into the lower to mid 20s.

Tonight: A weak wave in the flow will quickly move southeast
across northeast IA and northwest IL this evening. Forecast
soundings show limited moisture to work with and this is also a
quick-hitter. CAM`s indicate accumulations of about a tenth of
an inch in Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties. Elsewhere either
a trace or no snow at all. Lows will be in the upper teens to
lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Thursday-Friday...a split flow pattern develops aloft with 850mb
temps warming above 0C for the first time since 00z on Dec 31st!
Surface temperatures to warm above freezing each day, with stronger
WAA occurring Thursday night-Friday. Highs in the 40s are likely
Friday along with breezy southwest winds. Dewpoints will also
rise above freezing, which will help melt most if not all the
remaining snowpack across the CWA.

Friday night...a cold front will allow the well-advertised arctic
air mass to make its way south into the CONUS. The latest 12z
ensembles and deterministic model runs continue to show limited
moisture ahead of the front until it is east of our area. If the
front slows down, then light rain chances will increase. For
now, there is a 15-30% chance of rain in our far se counties.

Saturday-Tuesday...a dry and very cold arctic airmass will be
entrenched across much of the CONUS. How cold you might ask? The
12z ensemble probabilities of 850mb temps dropping below -25C
is currently in the 40-60% range. For reference, our coldest
850mb temp is -29.5C on 12/24/2022 with our period of record
dating back to 1995! The coldest days are expected on Sunday and
Monday, where highs will be in the single digits above zero at
most locations, with lows in the teens below zero possible.
These would be even lower if we had snow on the ground! NBM
indicates wind chills of 20 below or colder for several nights
during this time-frame. Eventually we will need headlines for
the frigid temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

VFR (SKC) through much of this taf cycle. High pressure over the
area will bring light and variable winds overnight into
Wednesday morning, then winds become southwest 10-15 kts as the
ridge shifts off to our east.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase