955
FXUS63 KDVN 042337
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
637 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Lingering rain in the east this afternoon, with a better
   chance for some wildfire smoke to mix down to the surface and
   be noticeable today into tomorrow morning.

-  Generally seasonal temps expected for most of the period into
   the weekend, with the next rain chances coming Friday and
   through the weekend (greatest on Sunday) with plenty of dry
   hours in between.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The cold front is finally starting to drift to the east out of
our local area with only a few lingering light showers across
Hancock and McDonough counties early this afternoon. Rain
chances in these areas will continue to decrease through the
rest of the afternoon. The low clouds keeping temperatures
cooler across North Central Illinois and Southeastern Iowa will
also start to creep east but upper level clouds will begin to
take their place as they move in from the southwest. Surface
high pressure will slowly begin to move into our area through
the overnight hours and into early tomorrow, keeping conditions
dry and the weather benign for Thursday.

The band of smoke behind the cold front continues to impact
portions of the local area with visibility impacts being
reported across East Central Iowa in places like Cedar Rapids
and Dubuque. This band will start to dissipate this evening,
mixing out from the surface. Unfortunately, northeast winds
overnight will begin to pull from the Great Lakes smoke pool and
begin to push another band of smoke into our area late
overnight and into the morning hours impacting the Quad Cities
area during the morning commute. The 04.12 run of the HRRR is
showing smoke concentrations starting to decrease across the
area after 15Z, likely due to surface winds starting to pick up
and diurnal mixing starting to take effect. Currently have the
smoke dissipating through the late morning hours with no
mentions after 18Z tomorrow due to the expected lighter
concentrations of smoke particulates. The Air Quality Alert for
Iowa remains in effect through 6 AM tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Broad longwave troughing has set up across the area with a
upper low well to the north across the Hudson Bay. This will
create near zonal flow overhead into the weekend. A broad, low
amplitude shortwave disturbance is progged to slowly ripple
across the area Friday into Saturday which will create areawide
low chances for rain both days. QPF for both days looks pretty
low with post places below 1/10th of an inch with some locations
just slightly higher.

A strong upper low is expected to drop southeast out of the
Canadian Plains and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region
Sunday into Monday, which will bring additional rain chances for
the area. The better chances look to stay further north of our
area, closer to the surface low over Southern Ontario. Showers
are expected along the trailing cold front that is currently
progged to move through the area during the day on Sunday. As
the surface low continues to occlude into Monday, some wrap
around showers will be possible across portions of Northern
Illinois. These could last through the afternoon before the low
finally progresses off to the east. As the upper low and
subsequent trough axis finally exit the region, upper level
ridging is expected to build in from the west. WPC cluster
analysis shows fairly strong consensus between the mid-range
ensembles for upper level ridging to dominate the pattern for
the mid/late week timeframe. This will help to transition the
area to a much drier pattern. Temperatures through the weekend
and into early next week will be right around normal in the 70s
to low 80s areawide with general northwest flow aloft. It isn`t
until Wednesday when surface winds shift to the south, allowing
for more large scale warm air advection into the region with
high temperatures finally climbing into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A cold front will continue to exit southeast away from the TAF
sites this evening & overnight. The low VFR cigs at KMLI will
gradually improve overnight. KBRL may see a brief period of MVFR
cigs early Thursday morning prior to sunrise before improving to
VFR. The remaining TAF period will see VFR ceilings for all
sites on Thursday. A gradual improvement from any surface & elevated
wildfire smoke will occur as the front drifts further east
overnight. We do not anticipate additional vsby impacts from
sfc based smoke/haze on Thursday. Winds will become light and
variable this evening. Speeds increase Thursday mid-morning out
of the east/northeast at 5 to 9 knots.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barendse
LONG TERM...Barendse
AVIATION...Hewett