106
FXUS63 KDVN 201119
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
619 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very heavy rain producing MCS continuing to affect the area through
  morning before moving off to the east. Then cloudy cooler and
  breezy conditions into Monday.

- The ongoing Flood Watch has been extended through midday Sunday
 for lingering rain and flooding problems.

- Scattered showers possible Monday into Tuesday, before a mid
  to late week break from the precip occurs. Cooler than normal
  high temperatures in the 60s for much of the upcoming week.
  Lows at night in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Heavy rain and some flooding-producing MCS acrs the area ATTM will
continue to linger and produce some wrap around rains well into
Sunday morning especially in the east. With expected flooding and
lingering flash flooding problems as well as swollen creeks/rivers
coming up, have extended the Flood Watch through 18z. This with the
idea that the next shift can cancel portions of the Watch from the
west and the north as need be. The rest of the day into the evening
behind the exiting LLVL wave to be cloudy, breezy and cooler in the
60s to low 70s with some spotty sprinkles or light rain.

The northeast winds and clouds to continue tonight, keeping fog at
bay. There is some fog this Sunday morning in the precip lull areas
such as the Hwy 20 corridor. As the upper low currently acrs WY
rolls toward the northeastern plains through Monday morning, more
showers may pop up and push into the western CWA late tonight into
Monday morning. Low temps tonight generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Monday and Tuesday...As the above mentioned cool core upper low
propagates acrs MN and IA, it should continue the mostly cloudy and
light showery regime for the local area into portions of Tue.
Highs in the 60s with lows in the 50s. If some clearing occurs
Tue night, currently fcst thicknesses support lows in the 40s.
If sfc winds trend light the same night, will have to keep fog
in mind.

Wednesday through Saturday...Quick look at the longer range suggests
kind of a messy and partially blocked upper air pattern, with
enough ridging close by or overhead to keep the area mainly dry
Wed into Thu, before an undercutting wave battles the ridging to
bring the next main chance of rain/showers by Friday into
Friday night. Temps look seasonable for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The heaviest of the showers and storms are quickly moving east
of the MS River this morning. However, in it`s wake we are left
with a low stratus that will be going nowhere today. This will
be a fairly deep cloud layer as well, so occasional periods of
-RA or DZ will be observed much of the day. Cloud heights will
 predominately remain IFR this period, though some improvements
 to MVFR levels will be possible up at DBQ and CID as some
 drier low level air filters in with the NNE winds. As for when
 we may finally rid ourselves of the stratus, it could be all
 the way until Wednesday before we see significant clearing of
 the skies.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078.
IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NWS MPX