386
FXUS63 KDVN 041146
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
546 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cyclonic flow under an upper trof will keep our area cool and mainly
  cloudy through Thursday, with periods of scattered light
  showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The mid to late evening hours, a mid level dry slot worked through
the entire area, ending the rain showers from west to east.  The low
pressure at the surface remained just west of our CWA, and through
midnight, has kept CAA and dry air at bay as of yet. However, as
this low moves to western WI by morning, west winds will sweep in
cooler air and drier surface air into the region (dew points in the
40s and 50s). That dry air is actually saturated due to the CAA, and
this will arrive with widespread stratus and periods of light
drizzle or even light showers today. This low level saturation will
keep temperatures from rising much above the 6 AM temperatures
today, as the highs for today are undoubtedly the Midnight
temperatures a few hours ago.

The upper trof will remain in place and gradually elongate through
Thursday, but the position of it suggests little change in our
sensible weather, more clouds, damp/drizzly skies, and cool
temperatures in the 50s.  Any rain amounts will be light, under 0.15
for the next 48 hours.

The upper low/trof will break down on Friday, but this won`t mean
milder temperatures at first. In fact, Friday could be quite cool
with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, continued stratocumulus at
times, and clearing Friday night dropping lows to the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The mid to late evening hours, a mid level dry slot worked through
the entire area, ending the rain showers from west to east.  The low
pressure at the surface remained just west of our CWA, and through
midnight, has kept CAA and dry air at bay as of yet. However, as
this low moves to western WI by morning, west winds will sweep in
cooler air and drier surface air into the region (dew points in the
40s and 50s). That dry air is actually saturated due to the CAA, and
this will arrive with widespread stratus and periods of light
drizzle or even light showers today. This low level saturation will
keep temperatures from rising much above the 6 AM temperatures
today, as the highs for today are undoubtedly the Midnight
temperatures a few hours ago.

The upper trof will remain in place and gradually elongate through
Thursday, but the position of it suggests little change in our
sensible weather, more clouds, damp/drizzly skies, and cool
temperatures in the 50s.  Any rain amounts will be light, under 0.15
for the next 48 hours.

The upper low/trof will break down on Friday, but this won`t mean
milder temperatures at first. In fact, Friday could be quite cool
with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, continued stratocumulus at
times, and clearing Friday night dropping lows to the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The cool Canadian high pressure will continue to keep the chilly air
around through the weekend, with more sunshine helping moderate the
feel of the days.

This surface high is forecast to move southeast of the region early
next week, with increased southwest winds and milder temperatures in
the 60s forecast.  This entire period of from Friday through the
middle of next week is expected to be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Wrap around MVFR stratocu deck, with a few periods of IFR
levels will be prominent this TAF cycle behind a large
departing storm system. There will be a few periods of light
rain and drizzle reduced VSBYs in the deck at CID and DBQ this
morning, and possibly off and on well into the afternoon. But
precip reduced VSBYs should mainly be a factor through mid
morning. Sfc winds will be rather steady from the west-southwest
at 12-17 KTs with higher gusts during the daytime heating.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...12