478
FXUS63 KDVN 222340
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
640 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight`s cold frontal passage is expected to arrive with decaying
  showers/storms or dry conditions.

- Pleasant early Fall weather is in store for the coming days,
  especially through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A pleasant summer day is found outside today, with widespread
cumulus once again dotting the sky.  Highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s are on track, with dew point values of the lower to mid 60s in
place.  This is the warm sector air, ahead of two approaching cold
fronts. The first is found from eastern Nebraska through southern
MN, where cloud cover is widespread with several areas of showers an
storms. To the northwest, a more powerful push of colder air is
sweeping southeast through North Dakota this afternoon. This second
front is dry at this time, but temperatures are in the 60s behind
it, with a gusty northwest wind and stratocumulus (FALL!).

Tonight, this lead front will arrive in our western counties around
midnight, with a 20% chance for showers and weak thunderstorms
with it. As the front moves east in the pre-dawn hours, this
activity is expected to wane farther, with mainly dry conditions
along the front. Cold advection is not expected to really begin
with this lead front, so lows in the lower to mid 60s are
expected tonight.

Saturday, the secondary push of colder advection will arrive by late
morning, with increasing northwest winds, and much drier air.
The deeply mixed atmosphere is still expected to warm to the mid
70s northwest, to lower 80s central/southeast, providing the
last of the summer feel for a few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Saturday evening, the CAA will be noticeable for all outside, as
temperatures drop through the 50s, as the dry cool air becomes
entrenched over the region.

The period from Sunday morning through Wednesday night remains
confidently below normal, as a broad, persistent upper trof remains
over the Great Lakes region. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s are
expected, with dry mild afternoons in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
This is nearly ideal for outdoor activities, but those staying
outside past sunset probably should think about a sweatshirt or
jacket as the air will cool fast given how dry it will be.

Some warming back to the mid 70s to near 80 is anticipated by
Thursday and Friday, as the upper trof moves a bit farther east.
Once again, it`s worth mentioning that with cyclonic flow aloft
through this week ahead, any unresolved short waves in the flow
could trigger a few showers if they move through during the
afternoon hours. This said, our forecast remains dry through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR will prevail overnight into Saturday, with overall good
flying conditions expected. A cold front moving through late
tonight into early Saturday may lead to a few brief showers,
mainly near CID and DBQ between 06-09Z/Saturday; brief MVFR
ceilings are possible in the vicinity of any showers. Breezy NW
winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20+ kts through
the afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Uttech