095
FXUS63 KDVN 110958
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
458 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may continue to slowly drop south through our far southern
  counties into the 8-9 AM window of time.

- Several passing transitions in the pattern in the week ahead
  will usher in oscillations from warm to mild Fall weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A cold front continues to make slow progress southward early this
morning, and as of 1 AM, this weakly convergent boundary is located
near Highway 34 in Illinois. This frontal location is associated
with a band of locally dense fog, which has been progressing
southward since late evening. While this is moving along, it may
linger past daybreak in our far southern counties in Missouri and
extreme southeast Iowa.

North of the front, much drier air is allowing for strong cooling,
and we`re starting to see some low lying areas drop to the lower 40s
already as of 1 AM, thus lows in the upper 30s to low 40s look on
target north of I-80, and mid to upper 40s farther south.

Today, light north winds will turn east with time as progressive
surface high pressure move through the Great Lakes. Dry air and
ample sunshine look to bring highs to the upper 60s to lower 70s,
making for a near ideal Fall day.

Tonight, low pressure developing in the Plains will tighten the
pressure gradient slowly overnight, but the dry air should still
allow for lows in the mid 40s east to near 50 west. Increasing
high clouds are expected, mainly overnight.

Sunday, strong low pressure is expected to move through southern
Canada, out of the northern Plains states, resulting in a breezy
day, especially western areas, during the afternoon. The
south/southeast winds are not ideal for a big warm up and fire risk
compared to deeply mixed southwest winds, but we`re still looking at
a mentionable agricultural fire risk in eastern Iowa.   Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are expected area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Sunday night and Monday, this strong storm system to the north will
push a front into our CWA, and with that, a chance for showers.
Monday could be a challenging temperature forecast as cloud cover
could hold our temperatures down. For now, we`ll stick with the NBM
highs in the low 70s west to upper 70s central and east.  Should
rain and clouds (or at least clouds), linger through the day, highs
in the lower 70s would be more likely.

A similar cooler air mass today is then expected to be over the
region Monday night through Thursday. However, with more cloud cover
expected as energy moves over the flat ridge in the southern states,
and some threat for showers from waa, highs in the 60s to lower 70s
are forecast.  Late this week, another deep trof is expected to
spread into the eastern Rocky Mountain states, with stronger
southerly flow and milder temperatures returning to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 457 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR / Clear conditions have spread over eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois this morning, and will continue through
Sunday morning. An area of fog, locally dense, is found south of
BRL early today, and is moving away from BRL. We do not expect
any additional IFR conditions at BRL this morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin