366
FXUS63 KDVN 141651
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather starts this evening and ramps up in intensity
  through the middle of the week. Near daily chances of storms
  are expected.

- Strong to severe storms are possible across the region on
  Wednesday and Thursday as our typical summertime MCS pattern
  appears to be setting up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Upper level low is moving east of the area this morning. While
the flow is easterly, cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures
up this evening. Drier air that was forecast to move in from
the east tonight, is struggling to make it west. As a result
dewpoints have stayed up as well. In the wake of this upper low
and rain across the southern CWA yesterday, some fog has
developed. Patchy dense fog was found across MO this AM. As the
low pulls further east, we could lose some of the lower level
clouds and this dense fog could become more widespread. If this
happens, a DFA may be needed for portions of the CWA this
morning.

Today, when the clouds burn off a nice day is expected. While
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s dewpoints are expected to
increase area wide into the mid 60s. The will be noticeably more
humid.

Tonight, ridging builds into the area. Our flow is weakly NW, so
waves riding around the ridge are expected to move into our
area. Instability looks to weak tonight and the waves moving
through the flow doesn`t really fire a decent LLJ. As a result,
showers and storms look to be diurnal in nature. CAMs have the
best footprint for these showers and storms across the NW CWA.
With lack of flow, single cell storms and/or cold pool dominated
storms will drive storm mode today. Will add this to HWO,
stating that evening showers and storms are possible across east
central Iowa, with no severe weather expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Forecast remains on track in the long term. Overall pattern is a
large ridge of the central CONUS, as return flow brings above
average temps and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s to the area. Each
day, temps and humidity will build. The first chance for
organized convection in this thermodynamic environment will be
Sunday afternoon as a wave moves through the area during peak
heating. CAPE will be higher tomorrow, but still not enough to
really get widespread storms. The best chance for storms will
once again be across east central Iowa.

Into the work week, we start to build even more CAPE as a series
of stronger waves move into the area. These waves will increase
shear. As they move through the area Wednesday and Thursday
strong to severe storms are possible. The main question is
whether or not we will be capped. Whoever is on the edge of the
cap with this environment will likely see severe storms. So now
we enter our typical summer pattern where forecast skill is
lower, unless a decent wave moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Conditions will continue to improve to VFR through early/mid PM,
as CIGs lift and scatter out with diurnal mixing into drier air
aloft. A boundary and building CAPE will likely serve as the
focus for scattered TSRA development later this afternoon into
evening, mainly across portions of central/northern Iowa.
Pooling of moisture and instability into central Iowa and Corfidi
vectors all would support a S/SW cell motion mostly away from
the terminals, barring anything unforeseen mesoscale i.e.
outflow boundaries, etc. Otherwise, SHRA/TSRA development
chances appear to be increasing late tonight through Sunday
morning, especially at CID and DBQ, tied to an upper level
disturbance over South Dakota that as it dives southeastward
around the periphery of an upper ridge over the Four Corners
region. Several CAMs bring some convection into at least
northeast Iowa, but disagree on the southward extent and so for
now I`ve opted to handle this potential with PROB30 mention at
CID and DBQ, but it bears watching for increased mention.
Conditions will likely drop to MVFR and localized IFR in any
SHRA/TSRA, while outside of any precipitation predominantly
VFR is expected. The fog and stratus potential for tonight looks
low aided by increasing solar insolation and BL drying through
the afternoon, and to this point the signal in the guidance is
quite muted both spatially and in magnitude.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure