057
FXUS63 KDVN 151926
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
126 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a very warm and breezy mid November day, temperatures
  will drop back into the 30s to upper 20s tonight.

- An active pattern returns next week, with passing storm
  systems and several chances for widespread rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

It has been another warm November day with temperatures in the 60s
to lower 70s, despite a weak cold front moving through this morning
and gusty NW winds between 25-35 mph. Colder, more seasonable air
will filter into the region tonight with lows in the 30s for
most locations. Cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow
with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s (north to south); high
pressure in control will lead to mainly sunny skies and NW winds
will hold between 10-20 mph. Temperatures are forecast to drop
back into the 30s and 20s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Later Monday through Tuesday afternoon, a prolonged over-
running event is forecast across portions of the Midwest, with
models trending further north on the placement of the steadiest
precipitation. Locally, we can expect cool, cloudy and at times
damp conditions to start the workweek. It continues to appear
warm enough for this to be a rain event for our outlook area,
with no winter hazards expected.

Tuesday Night - Saturday: An active weather pattern will begin
to take shape, with several waves moving through the southwest
flow aloft. Models continue to disagree on the evolution and
speed of a longwave trof moving east out of the desert southwest
with significant surface low placement differences. Regardless
of which model verifies, a strong dynamic low pressure system
will bring a prolonged period of widespread rainfall, large
temperature swings, and strong winds to the Midwest. This system
could arrive as early as Wednesday night lasting through Friday
for the local area. The NBM is around climatology for
temperatures for this period and have left values alone given
the amount of uncertainty. The latest Long Range Forecast
Ensemble has 30-50%+ probabilities for 0.50"+ of rainfall with
the late week system from NW to SE across the outlook area, and
higher probabilities to our southeast across central/southern
Illinois. Further details will be ironed out in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1049 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Gusty NW winds expected today behind a cold front, reaching near
25 kts at times. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through the
period with prevailing VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin/Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech