318
FXUS63 KDVN 140804
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather during the day today with some morning fog and
  clouds expected.

- Active weather starts this evening and ramps up in intensity
  through the middle of the week. Near daily chances of storms
  are expected.

- Strong to severe storms are possible across the region on
  Wednesday and Thursday as our typical summertime MCS pattern
  appears to be setting up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Upper level low is moving east of the area this morning. While
the flow is easterly, cloud cover has helped to keep
temperatures up this evening. Drier air that was forecast to
move in from the east tonight, is struggling to make it west. As
a result dewpoints have stayed up as well. In the wake of this
upper low and rain across the southern CWA yesterday, some fog
has developed. Patchy dense fog was found across MO this AM. As
the low pulls further east, we could lose some of the lower
level clouds and this dense fog could become more widespread.
If this happens, a DFA may be needed for portions of the CWA
this morning.

Today, when the clouds burn off a nice day is expected. While
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s dewpoints are expected to
increase area wide into the mid 60s. The will be noticeably more
humid.

Tonight, ridging builds into the area. Our flow is weakly NW, so
waves riding around the ridge are expected to move into our
area. Instability looks to weak tonight and the waves moving
through the flow doesn`t really fire a decent LLJ. As a result,
showers and storms look to be diurnal in nature. CAMs have the
best footprint for these showers and storms across the NW CWA.
With lack of flow, single cell storms and/or cold pool dominated
storms will drive storm mode today. Will add this to HWO,
stating that evening showers and storms are possible across east
central Iowa, with no severe weather expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Forecast remains on track in the long term. Overall pattern is a
large ridge of the central CONUS, as return flow brings above
average temps and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s to the area. Each
day, temps and humidity will build. The first chance for
organized convection in this thermodynamic environment will be
Sunday afternoon as a wave moves through the area during peak
heating. CAPE will be higher tomorrow, but still not enough to
really get widespread storms. The best chance for storms will
once again be across east central Iowa.

Into the work week, we start to build even more CAPE as a series
of stronger waves move into the area. These waves will increase
shear. As they move through the area Wednesday and Thursday
strong to severe storms are possible. The main question is
whether or not we will be capped. Whoever is on the edge of the
cap with this environment will likely see severe storms. So now
we enter our typical summer pattern where forecast skill is
lower, unless a decent wave moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Low clouds are expected to build into the area through daylight.
MVFR cigs and even IFR cigs are possible as an upper level low
pulls east of the area. Winds will remain light. There is some
chance for LIFR vsbys, especially at BRL before daybreak.
Confidence in occurrence is low, so have left out of the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs