882
FXUS63 KDVN 022352
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
552 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A large storm system will move through the Midwest early this
  week. Rainfall amounts of 1"+ are possible for some locations
  (50-80% chance over eastern Iowa) and gusty south-southeast
  winds are expected area-wide.

- Isolated severe storms with a low but non-zero brief tornado
  threat are possible during the daytime Tuesday, mainly south
  of U.S. Highway 30.

- Behind the system, cooler conditions are expected and spotty
  rain showers will be possible for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today through Tonight:

SPC mesoanalysis had a 998mb low positioned over northeast South
Dakota as of early this afternoon. Low-level moisture advection
downstream of the low across the Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley has resulted in widespread low clouds and areas of
drizzle and patchy light rain locally this morning into the
early afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent on eastern flank
of a large upper trough, combined with increasing low/mid
tropospheric warm air advection will lead to an increase in shower
coverage later this afternoon/evening mainly across the western
outlook area (west and northwest of the Quad Cities). This
activity will be slow to make eastward progress as the
aforementioned surface low shifts into northern Minnesota and a
new area of low pressure begins to develop over eastern Kansas
late tonight into Tuesday. Gusty south-southeast to south winds
will continue through this period, reaching 30+ mph at times.

With an elongated surface trough axis set to hold west of
eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through much of Tuesday, our
area will stay in the "warm and moist" sector of this storm
system. Surface dewpoints will be very high for early November,
peaking into the lower to possibly mid 60s, which will lead to
a slightly unstable airmass and the potential for isolated
thunderstorms (MUCAPE peaking <500 J/kg per HREF). A few of the
storms could be strong to severe across roughly the southwest
third of the outlook area on Tuesday (west and southwest of the
Quad Cities). Exact timing is uncertain with the low potential
encompassing both the morning and afternoon to evening hours.
Typical for a high shear and low CAPE setup, the primary risks
from the strongest storms are isolated damaging winds and a few
brief spin up tornadoes.

Anomalously high PWATs (near 1.5-1.7") will support efficient
rain producing showers/storms which could lead to the hardest
hit areas receiving 1-2" of rainfall by Tuesday night. The
highest amounts, and greatest probabilities for 1"+, are most
favored across the west and northwest section of the outlook
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The active pattern will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday as
a secondary surface low that`s progged to develop over southwestern
Kansas will sweep through the area late Tuesday, along with a
surface cold front. Accumulating rainfall appears to wane in the
wake of the fropa, but we will remain under a cloudy and cool
pattern for the latter half of the week as a closed upper low is
progged to develop over the Midwest. Confidence in this occurring is
quite high, given the general consensus among the LREF ensemble
cluster analysis. So, we will be dealing with persistent cyclonic
flow, some lingering spotty light rain showers and some breezy
winds, this time from the southwest. High temperatures on Thursday
and Friday will cool down quite a bit compared to early this week
but will still remain above average for early November - in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Friday through the upcoming weekend: conditions look to become dry,
along with some peaks of sunshine here and there. This is thanks to
an area of high pressure that is progged to build over the region
behind the departing cut-off low. High temperatures look to continue
to warm into the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Primarily IFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. A storm system is slowly making its way through the region,
with CIGs currently around 500-2000 ft across eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois. A line of showers with isolated thunderstorms is
slowly progressing eastward early this evening, with showers
ongoing as of 00Z at CID and expected at DBQ. Confidence in
thunderstorms is highest at CID for this evening, and while
storms are possible at DBQ mid-late evening into overnight, low
confidence led to exclusion at this issuance.

Showers will become more widespread overnight with an increase
in intensity as they near BRL and MLI towards 03/12Z. Some
thunderstorms may be possible at BRL and MLI through the
morning hours and have been included as a PROB30. Winds
throughout the period will be southerly and breezy at 10-20 kts
and gusts to 25-30 kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Ellingworth