713
FXUS63 KDVN 040546
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant early Fall weather is forecast through next week,
  with mainly dry conditions and near to above normal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A mid-level shortwave and attendant surface front is serving as
the focus for showers across parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest, with even a few storms occurring across parts of
MN/WI. Much of the forcing and deeper moisture looks to pass
to our north tonight, but a glancing brush of ascent could
result in some sprinkles or brief very light rain for some of
the far northern counties late this evening and early overnight.
Otherwise, we`ll see a bout of mid/high cloudiness followed by
perhaps some spotty lower clouds late tonight and Sunday morning
along the cold front traversing the area. Lows will be a bit
of challenge tonight with initially clear skies, light winds
and dry air allowing for a quick drop before clouds and a
southerly wind likely bring a halt or even rise in temperatures
before dropping back again late. Overall, anticipate lows in
the 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Much of next week looks to remain fairly quiet with northwesterly
flow aloft, but high 500 hPa heights, as we reside in-between a
broad expanse of high pressure out west and troughing over eastern
NOAM. Given the prevailing northwest flow, moisture via the
Gulf or eastern Pacific will be limited, thus we`re expecting
mainly dry conditions into at least Thursday. This is great news
for our farmers who are wanting fields to dry to resume
harvest. Plenty of solar insolation and at times gusty winds
will be favorable to accelerate soil drying. Temperatures will
be influenced by the passage of a couple of weak fronts, but
overall look to be near to above normal with highs in the
60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s. Given 850 hPa temperature
anomalies at or above 75th percentile and generally ranging from
+2C to +8C, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a couple of days
(Tuesday/Wednesday) being warmer with a westerly and gusty
component to the winds owing to favorable downsloping off the
High Plains.

Late in the week there is the potential for rain chances to
return, as the flow aloft turns more zonal allowing for an
influx of shortwave energy and eastern Pacific moisture.
Confidence on timing and rain chances is low, however the good
news is should any rain occur it looks to be light with CMC/GFS
ensembles probabilities at 20% or less for >0.10".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A weak storm system is passing to the north through 12 UTC
Sunday with a trailing cold front. As the cold front passes the
TAF sites through 12 UTC winds will switch from the southwest
to northwest. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to 5 to 10
knots after 12 UTC with gusts after 15 UTC of 15 to 20 knots.
Winds are then forecast to diminish after 00 UTC on Monday.
Ceilings with the front are forecast to be around 7 to 10 kft.
Overall VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Cousins