471
FXUS63 KDVN 010500
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1200 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant storm system will move through the Midwest the
  first half of the week. Behind the system spotty rain showers
  will be possible for the second half of the work week.

- Although cooler, temperatures will continue to average above
  normal for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Weak disturbances will keep plenty of clouds around today along with
sprinkles or small areas of rain showers. The cloud cover and rain
will help suppress temperatures (similar to Saturday) but still
above normal for early November.

Clouds will further increase and lower tonight as moisture from the
developing storm system begins moving into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Monday through Wednesday
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on a storm system bringing
some rain to the area along with warmer than normal temperatures.

Although there are differences between the global models, they have
been consistent in taking the center of the significant system well
to the west of the area. The net result will be much warmer than
normal temperatures for the area along with windy conditions.
Periodic rounds of rain will be seen with the best chances being
Monday night into Tuesday.

The overall timing for the best chances for rain also agrees with
the surge of moisture from the Pacific along with some from the
Gulf. The model PWATs with the moisture surge are 1.5+ inches which
would exceed the local sounding climatology. Such moisture also
yields a high probability of locally heavy rainfall, especially with
any thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will be possible since we`ll be in the warm sector of
the storm. The signal for strong to severe storms is mixed but
various ML runs suggests a severe potential in the Plains. Back in
eastern Iowa the signal is being lost in the overall background
noise.

Once the main cold front and a secondary low sweep through the area
on Wednesday, spotty showers and sprinkles will be possible the
second half of the work week.

Temperatures through the entire week will average above normal for
early November.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Areas of rain showers will slowly increase in areal coverage to
25-35% through through 15z/01. Brief MVFR VSBYS in the stronger
showers are possible. After 15z/01 the SHRA will slowly
dissipate. Moisture moving north from the Gulf will allow MVFR
CIGS to overspread the area from south to north after 00z/02.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08