145
FXUS63 KDVN 141745
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for locations along and south
  of Interstate 80 this morning

- Periodic chances of showers and storms will be in the picture
  for late Tuesday through Saturday, with the highest chances
  coming Wednesday afternoon and evening (40-70%)

- Flooding is occurring or expected to occur on some area
  rivers; please see the hydrology section below for more
  details

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The work week starts off with dense fog being seen on local webcams
and airport observations for locations along and south of Interstate
80 where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM this
morning. An area of high pressure remains overhead, with light winds
and clear skies leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions,
coupled with lingering wet ground from Thursday and Friday`s
widespread severe storms. Eventually, the boundary layer should mix
after sunrise this morning to help dissipate the dense fog.

After AM fog dissipates, pleasant conditions are expected today,
with mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures compared to
yesterday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Surface high
pressure will remain with us tonight under continued zonal flow
aloft. Lows tonight should dip to the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Periodic chances of showers and storms will be with us for late
Tuesday through Saturday, particularly for mid-week (chances as high
as 40-70% for Wednesday PM). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests
zonal flow will be the norm, depicted well in the 14.00z LREF 500 mb
height cluster analysis. A few mid-level impulses embedded within
the zonal flow will support more active conditions starting late
Tuesday. The bulk of our attention for this week remains on
Wednesday, which looks to be our next chances for strong to severe
storms. A few key features we will keep an eye on is the potential
for an MCV to approach the area by Wednesday afternoon, which can be
seen in the 14.00z RRFS. Additionally, a surface cold front is
progged to quickly follow behind the MCV, which could also provide
forcing for thunderstorms. Instability should be adequate for storms
as MLCAPE values a progged around 1000-2000 J/kg, along with
strengthening kinematics but generally meager deep-layer shear
(around 20 to 30 knots). With this said, along with a continued
signal in the various ML output for severe convection on Wednesday,
SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most of our
CWA. How things evolve Wednesday will greatly depend on how
convection develops for locations upstream over the Plains. Stay
tuned to the forecast over the next few days!

The active period appears likely to continue into the end of the
week as strong upper-level ridging develops over the southeastern
CONUS region, which could act to stall the aforementioned cold
front/baroclinic zone over the Corn Belt region. Temperatures will
remain slightly warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday before the cold
front arrives, with highs in the middle to upper 80s each day,
gradually cooling off after Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High pressure is forecast to sit across Michigan through the TAF
period with eastern Iowa TAF sites on its western edge. This
will bring VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be
south to southeasterly during the day with speeds of 5 to 10
knots with light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The flood warning for the Skunk River at Sigourney has been
canceled as the river has crested near action stage and has
started to slowly fall. There have been no other forecast
changes with flood warnings remaining in effect for the Iowa
River at Marengo as well as the Mississippi River at Gladstone
and Burlington. A flood watch remains in effect for the
Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt. Within bank rises continue on
several area rivers.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...Cousins