285
FXUS63 KDVN 140555
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds are expected tonight with gradual clearing through
  Saturday.

- Active pattern expected to continue this weekend with the possibility
  of pop-up showers and storms. Into next week, pattern becomes
  more organized and chances for strong to even severe storms
  return to the region.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the
  period with slightly lower humidity Sunday before rich gulf
  moisture moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A pleasant summer day has been found in our northwest 1/2 the CWA
today, with dewpoint rising from the 50s to the mid 60s by early
afternoon, with temperatures between 77 and 80 as of 1 PM. The
southeast 1/2, closer to the weak upper low, continues to see
scattered slow moving showers, and plenty of clouds, which is
holding temperatures to the lower to mid 70s as of 1 PM. The
moisture in the southeast is quite high, with dew points as high as
70.  That sticky air has resulted in higher PWAT values and we did
receive on measured 2.30 rain spotter report from Van Buren county
today.  Impressive!

Tonight, the weak showers activity will gradually dissipate after 8
PM, with some rumbles of thunder and downpours likely through then
in the strongest cells. Coverage will remain low, under 30%, and be
confined to the southeast 1/2. Lows tonight, with cloud cover and
higher dewpoints in the south, lows in the mid 60s are forecast,
while the north, with shallower moisture and a loss of diurnal
cumulus expected, lows in the upper 50s to near 60 should occur.

Saturday remains dry in our forecast today, with the upper low far
enough east to keep shower chances below 20% and the approaching
weak upper low/short wave Sunday west enough to have a confidently
dry forecast.  Still, some cloud cover through diurnal cumulus and
dissipating morning stratus is expected, and highs in the lower 80s
east to mid 80s west are forecast.

East winds will continue through Saturday night, and with some dry
advection enhanced by Lake Michigan forecast, a pleasant night in
the upper 50s east and lower 60s west is forecast.

Sunday, warm advection at lower levels with a south/southeast wind
and warmer air aloft will bring highs back to the upper 80s for most
locations, along  with a low chance for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. The approaching weak upper wave will be
worthy of pops, though QPF in models is no longer showing a signal,
this will steepen mid level lapse rates, and bring a low / isolated
thunder chance, especially west late the day, and all locations
overnight. With clouds overnight, and south winds/increasing
dewpoints, lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An upper high pressure will build over the southwest CONUS late in
the weekend into next week, setting up the Midwest for increased
heat, rich gulf moisture, and frequent organized thunderstorm
chances. Wednesday remains outlooked by SPC for a 15% Severe risk,
which seems well supported by guidance at this point.  Like always
in a "ring of fire" pattern, the QPF will vary from model run to
run, but reality is a high ~2" PWAT air mass is expected to be in
play, as well as progressive short waves at mid levels over the
northern periphery of the high CAPE air mass. This is a typical MCS
(possibly severe MCS) pattern, and nightly convective clusters can
be anticipated somewhere in the region. Placement and timing will
gain confidence as this pattern develops after Saturday, and then we
can more specifically address periods for exact convective
placement, as we can see the strength of the EML in the Plains,
and location of the west to east front through the Midwest.

Warm temperatures are expected each day, with dew points over
65, possibly well over 70 in this regime. There would be some
relief in the wake of any MCS that progresses through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Low clouds are expected to build into the area through daylight.
MVFR cigs and even IFR cigs are possible as an upper level low
pulls east of the area. Winds will remain light. There is some
chance for LIFR vsbys, especially at BRL before daybreak.
Confidence in occurrence is low, so have left out of the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gibbs