766
FXUS63 KDVN 051835
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1235 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our stretch of cloudy and occasionally rainy/drizzly conditions
  will end by this evening in the wake of a passing cool front.

- Temperatures will be cooler than average over the next few
  days, especially Friday night when lows are expected to dip
  below freezing, before moderating by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

We will continue to see cloudy and occasionally rainy/drizzly
conditions this afternoon into the evening hours today as a cool
front and associated mid-level PVA maxima will gradually translate
through the area. Ample low-level moisture per the HRRR/RAP/RRFS
soundings up to around 8000 feet AGL should support occasional light
drizzle or showers at times.

In the wake of the front, drier air is progged to filter in, but
there are some questions on just how quickly the cloud cover will
dissipate. We`ve leaned a bit more pessimistic compared to the NBM
which has us gradually clearing out by tonight, but with a stout
thermal inversion in place, and plenty of lingering low-level
moisture, will keep a cloudy overnight forecast. With northerly
flow/cold air advection behind the front, tonight`s lows should dip
to the middle to upper 30s for most locations.

The dry air looks to finally win out on Friday as an area of high
pressure builds into the region. A lobe of enhanced vorticity is
progged to move through lower Michigan, but it should remain far
enough away that it won`t generally any weather impacts for us. If
it does shift more westward, we may see a bit more cloud cover than
currently expected. It will feel a bit cooler Friday compared to
today, with highs warming only to the upper 40s. As the high
pressure center settles over the region, light winds and mostly
clear skies will result in a chilly night Friday night/Saturday
morning with lows dipping to the middle to upper 20s - temperatures
we haven`t experienced since the morning of October 17th! Bundle up
if you`re planning to be out and about Friday night!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

After a chilly Saturday morning, temperatures will gradually warm
into early next week, along with dry conditions through mid-week
next week. The aforementioned high pressure system will remain
anchored over the central CONUS, along with amplified upper-level
ridging over the Intermountain West states. This should support a
period of quiet, pleasant fall weather. By Monday, high temperatures
are forecast to rise to the middle 60s, which would be nearly 10
degrees above average for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Largely MVFR to IFR conditions were observed across the area
late this morning, as a weak cool front continues to dive
southward through the region ahead of an upper-level low. Some
occasional drizzle or light rain showers were also observed,
with MVFR visibilities. IFR ceilings and visibility reductions
appear to be more tied to along and just ahead of the cool
front, so thinking the IFR conditions will be more fleeting and
MVFR conditions will be more common. Winds are shifting more
northerly behind the front and should become breezy for a time,
with gusts around 20 knots.

One area of uncertainty tonight is for when the MVFR low clouds
will dissipate, given a trend in the REFS ensemble to clear
skies out. Thinking that the cloud cover may linger through
most/all of tonight, but ceilings are slated to improve to VFR
into early Friday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz