684
FXUS63 KDVN 101726
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm advection band
  will sweep through our area from west to east early this
  morning, and end before Noon in our far east. Amounts of rain
  appear quite low.

- Temperatures gradually warm up through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Initially clear skies and light east to southeast winds allowed low
temperatures to reach the mid 40s east, to mid 50s west earlier
tonight, but as mid and and high clouds arrived in the past few
hours, we`ve risen to the upper 50s to low 60s out west, while
remaining cool in the east. Warm advection aloft is driving a
increasing band of scattered showers and thunderstorms in central
into northeast Iowa as of 130 AM. Nearly all CAMs bring this
scattered activity through the entire CWA through 9 AM today, and
given the convective nature of this activity, I`m leaning on those
models this morning for timing and coverage. Generally we`re seeing
a 40-60% coverage in each hour prior to 15Z/10 AM, with amounts of
rain only  a few hundreths for most areas that do see rain, and up
to a 0.25 in places that see some of the isolated thunderstorms
(quite isolated). While the low levels are certainly parched
for moisture, aloft, there is a pool of PWAT over 1 inch to our
southwest, and the activity is on the nose of WAA of that air
mass this morning, thus some brief heavy downpours are possible
in storms.

Despite the clouds and morning precipitation, we should see some
clearing in the afternoon hours, especially west today. Thus, high
temperatures in the mid 70s are forecast in western areas, while our
eastern areas remain in the upper 60s. This corresponds closely to
the 25% NBM, which is actually much closer to the ensemble members,
while the NBM is farther up on the narrower skew of guidance
members. In any case, most of today will be pleasant, with a dry
cold frontal passage during the afternoon/early evening hours.

Tonight, with clear/clearing skies, and dry air in place, we`re set
for another cool night in the upper 30s to mid 40s.  Light north
winds are expected area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A pleasant weekend is in store, with temperatures in the upper 60s
to lower 70s Saturday and lower 70s (north) to upper 70s central and
south Sunday. Through Sunday afternoon, dry weather is confidently
forecast, as a ridge of high pressure moves through the region.
Following this high pressure ridge, Sunday night and Monday may see
some shower/thunderstorm activity as a short wave moves through the
upper Midwest.  This short wave is not consistently forecast by
models, and remains anywhere from a latitude near Iowa (NAM), or
well to the north, GFS/EC. In any case, there will be a low (20-30%)
chance for showers in this period, and rainfall amounts are forecast
to be light.

Looking Tuesday through Thursday,  another passing high pressure
system at the surface is forecast by the bulk of available
guidance, resulting in pleasant temperatures in the 60s and 70s
each day, and lows in the 40s and 50s. There could be a few
bouts of passing showers as upper level energy moves east over
the broad upper ridge which is indicated by models over the
southern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Generally VFR is anticipated today into Saturday AM as a weak
cold front shifts through the region. SW to W winds will shift
to the NE from late this afternoon into tonight and decrease to
under 10 kts. Patchy fog is possible near BRL late tonight into
Saturday AM, but did not include in the TAFs yet due to low
confidence.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Uttech