067
FXUS63 KDVN 040915
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
315 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast through Friday
  before a significant cool down begins this weekend into early
  next week.

- There are two chances of rain over the next 7 days; the first
  is Thursday night into Friday and the second is Saturday into
  Saturday night. Rainfall amounts are light with the better
  chance of rain on Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 123 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Zonal flow across the CONUS continues through the short term
period as a dampened 500 MB shortwave moves across the area
this morning. This is storm system is producing mid and upper
level clouds. As this shortwave moves across, a warm front will
lift northward across the area and turn winds around to the
south. Winds will increase behind the front to 10 to 15 MPH and
gusts up to 25 MPH. This will allow for increasing low level
moisture late morning into the afternoon slowly increasing low
level humidity. It will be warmer today with high temperatures
ranging from the lower 60s along the Highway 20 corridor to the
upper 60s to around 70 in southeast Iowa, west central Illinois,
and far northeast Missouri.

Skies are expected to be clear Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front that is forecast to move into east central Iowa by 12 UTC
Wednesday. It will be warmer tonight with low temperatures
ranging from the lower 40s northwest of a Cedar Rapids to
Manchester line to the upper 40s in northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A shortwave passing to our north across Minnesota and Wisconsin
on Wednesday morning will pull a cool front across the area on
Wednesday morning. This frontal boundary will be dry. Behind
the front, winds are forecast to switch to the northwest and
increase on Wednesday morning. Model soundings during this
period show deeper mixing than the previous two days with
winds at the top of the mixed layer north of Interstate 80 in
the 30 to 35 knot range. In collaboration with neighboring
offices, increase winds from the NBM Wednesday morning into the
afternoon. Wind gusts along and north of Highway 30 are forecast
to be up to 30 MPH through noon with gusts up to 25 MPH to the
south. High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler and range
from the mid 50s west of a Cedar Rapids to Dubuque line to the
lower 60s in northwest Illinois south of Interstate 80.

An active pattern continues into the upcoming weekend. A
shortwave is forecast to dig into the air Thursday night into
Friday. Models continue to vary on track and available moisture
of this storm system and any potential precipitation with this
storm system. The GFS is farther north with the track and keeps
the area dry Thursday night into Friday while the ECWMF and
Canadian are farther south with the system tracking across
Minnesota and Wisconsin. The more southerly track also results
in some CAPE across the area Thursday night and the potential
for some thunder south of Interstate 80. The chance for thunder
will be tied to moisture return along and east of the
Mississippi River. Rainfall amounts will be low across the area
with a tenth of an inch or less expected.

The flow aloft becomings northwesterly Friday night into
Saturday as a stronger shortwave digs into the Plains and will
move across the region Saturday into Saturday night. The GFS
track is slightly farther to the south than the other models
pulling colder air in behind the system faster than the other
models. This would result in precipitation mixing with snow
Saturday night. Rain is expected through the day on Saturday.
Model precipitation has increased with the latest runs with
perception ranging from two tenths to 4 tenths with the high
precipitation totals north of Interstate 80.

High pressure is forecast to quickly move in behind this storms
system with quiet weather is expected Sunday into Tuesday.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Sunday into early next
week with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees than this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure is sitting over the area early this morning with
light and variable winds across eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois. As high pressure exit to the east, winds will turn to
the southeast up to 10 knots with winds turning to the south by
18 UTC and increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots. VFR conditions are forecast through the period as mid and
high clouds drift across the area this morning associated with a
weak storm system moving across the region.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins