219
FXUS63 KDVN 021830
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slightly earlier frontal passage tomorrow is expected to lower
  rainfall chances and amounts from earlier forecasts.

- Cooler than normal weather continues to dominate the weather
  through this weekend following the cold fropa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A beautiful mild day is found outside today, with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80, and dew point values in
the mid to upper 50s.  Light and variable winds have been in place
today locally.  Just the northwest, a lead short wave is working
east through MN and WI with several bands of light shower/storm
activity, which narrowly extends south into north central Iowa. This
activity is ahead of the cold front, which is found from central SD
to north central MN this afternoon. Northwest of this cold
front, a large area of stratocumulus can be found over southern
Canada, with gusty north winds and temperatures in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Tonight, with the front well to the north, much of the night will be
dry, and quiet, with increasing mid clouds and light west winds
winds. After midnight, the approaching front will bring a chance for
showers and weak thunderstorms to northern sections, especially
after 3 AM. This rain chance of 20-50% will continue into the
morning, and gradually drop south during the day Wednesday. Most
models have the cold front south of I-80 by Noon, with plenty
of clouds to the north of it. Thus, I`ve lowered highs to the
mid 60s north, and limited highs to the upper 60s along I-80.
Southern areas should see another mild day in the upper 70s, and
with that, the best chance (50-70%) for showers and storms in
the afternoon hours as they`ll have CAPE over 1000 in place
prior to the fropa. Either way, these progressive showers and
storms are unlikely to bring notable QPF, with most spots seeing
under 0.10".

Rain chances will quickly drop south of the area by Wednesday
evening, with initial clouds expected to break up some overnight in
cold advection. Temperatures aloft crash quickly into the single
digits C, but winds winds ongoing, lows will only be a few degrees
cooler than recent radiational cooling nights. Forecasts remain in
the lower to mid 40s for the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Thursday has become another transition day, with brief WAA ahead of
another cold front due Thursday night.  This is resulting in a
milder day forecast than earlier forecasts with highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s, and increasing southwest winds in the afternoon.
Thursday evening, a quick shot of showers will is forecast, mainly
north of I-80, where up to another 0.10 of rain is possible, ahead
of the next cold front.

The strongest CAA in this upcoming pattern appears to be on tap for
Friday, with both scattered stratocumulus and northwest winds of 15-
25 mph making for a cool day in the lower to upper 60s.

This weekend looks to be beautiful, with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, and lows in the lower 40s to near 50 from north to south.

Early next week, a warming trend into the mid 70s is forecast, along
with a low chance (20-30%) for rain.  This quick changing pattern
does not offer much chance for moisture to be advected in ahead of
waves, thus, any rainfall appears light.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Cumulus cloud around 5-6KFT will continue to dot the sky through
the afternoon, with otherwise, VFR conditions in light/variable
winds. An approaching cold front tonight, could bring a few
light showers into northeast Iowa, but the main rain chances
will arrive in the afternoon hours Wednesday as a cold front
sweeps through the region. Cigs may approach MVFR in northern
areas by mid morning Wednesday, but most lower conditions will
hold off until deeper into the cooler air Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES:
              September 4      September 5
Moline        61 in 1874       61 in 1876
Dubuque       58 in 1994       61 in 1920

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
              September 4      September 5
Moline        39 in 1974       42 in 1974
Dubuque       38 in 1974       44 in 1988 and others
Cedar Rapids  38 in 1974       42 in 1974
Burlington    40 in 1974       44 in 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin
CLIMATE...NWS