742
FXUS63 KDVN 191807
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
107 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An increasingly synoptic supported heavy rain set up continues
  to evolve today, just hours following this dissipation of
  last night`s heavy rain MCS.

- Heavy rains will again break out tonight, especially along and north
  of I-80 and near and south of Highway 20. This area is
  already saturated, and is broadly included in a Flood Watch
  until 7 AM Sunday.

- The Marginal risk for isolated severe storms was added back to
  the area by SPC, but this risk remains conditional and low in
  our area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The overnight MCS impacted nearly all locations along and north
of I- 80 early today, resulting in widespread 1 to 4 inch
rains, that were highest in our Highway 20 corridor. Since 10
AM, the intensity has decreased, along with coverage of heavy
rains. In the mean time, clouds and scattered showers continue
to move east over the area, as warm advection continues to force
showers in a high PWAT atmosphere. Our freezing level on our
18Z sounding (just launched) is 13,900 ft! For September, that
is remarkably high, and shows how anomalous this atmosphere is.
SPC mesoscale analysis continues to show moisture transport
aimed into Iowa and Illinois, with strong heating ongoing to our
southwest in Missouri and Kansas. Thus, there will be ample
MUCAPE and moisture to support another round of storms over our
area.

Models are in good agreement showing a short wave over Kansas (seen
on WV this morning), moving up over our region tonight. This will
trigger storms to form, especially where the warm front to our west
meet the outflow boundary. That point at 1230 PM this afternoon is
located just southwest of Des Moines. Unfortunately, the trajectory
of storms that form near that point will spread over the CWA, and
much like last night, training storms are expected.  Our ongoing
forecast already had a good handle on that, though with WPC
expanding the Moderate (Level 3 out of 4) westward along I-80 to our
western counties I have expanded the Flood Watch into that area.

Tonight`s storms could be capable of a brief window of strong to
severe wind gusts, if the atmosphere over eastern Iowa can see some
PM heating. That remains questionable with clouds and rain showers
continuing to move over the area.   In any case, by the time a
multicell line is formed, an west to east band of thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall of 1-2 per hour expected. Thus, much like last
night, a broad axis of 1-3 inches is expected, with a maximum of 3-
5" possible within it.  There is some threat that this could overlay
last night`s heavy axis in the north, and if so, higher level
impacts would be expected.  This morning, creeks along Highway 20
were reported to be high to just out of their banks, per EMA
reports. Dubuque county did see some creek flooding along Catfish
Creek and the Little Maquoketa River.  Tonight, we may see some
Flash flood warning containing "Considerable" wording, vs baseline
warnings, as this situation is just hours removed from the rain this
morning. Urban areas, including Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Muscatine,
and Quad Cities are included for metro areas for urban flooding
potential.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Sunday...A cooler cloudy and post-frontal day with ongoing lift up
and over the LLVL baroclinicity which should be settling off to the
south of the DVN CWA. Increasing north to northeasterly boundary
layer(BL) winds with some spotty rain will make for not a very nice
day with a lot of the area held down in the 60s to low 70s. With the
upper wave still moving acrs the area, suppose some isolated
thunderstorms possible as well as nuisance funnels.

Monday through Friday...Quick look at the longer range suggests that
the large upper low/wave currently centered over southern ID will
roll eastward acrs the northern plains and toward the upper MS RVR
Valley through Tuesday. This may keep cloudy, cooler weather going
acrs the area as well as sctrd showers for the early next week
period. As this upper wave fills and pulls off to the east, there
may be a mid week precip lull until medium range ensemble indicated
next passing trof brings the next precip chances by Thu night or
next Friday. Cooler temp regime still looks to last much of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Widespread light to moderate rain showers continue over the
entire area as of Noon today, leading to wet variable
conditions throughout eastern Iowa and Illinois. We are all
sitting just northeast of a sharp warm front in northern
Missouri, where a hot sunny day is taking place, vs our rain
filled and IFR ceiling plagued atmosphere to the north. The
rest of the afternoon will see southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph
gradually decrease in strength to around 5 mph this afternoon.
The scattered showers are expected to decrease in coverage this
afternoon, with mainly VFR weather for the mid afternoon to
early evening hours, before another round of widespread
thunderstorms develops near the I-80 to Highway 20 corridors
this evening and continues overnight in a transition to
widespread rains, much like last night and the night before. A
cold front will slowly make its way south, leading to north
winds by mid evening tonight, and with that and the rain,
another prolonged period of IFR cigs are expected tonight
lasting through Sunday morning, with occasional rain showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This mornings MCS brought widespread moderate to heavy rain to
portions of the area mainly along and north of the Interstate 80
corridor counties. Rainfall amounts in this area were 2 to 4
inches with the heaviest rains falling along and east of of a
Manchester to Maquoketa line. This has caused many area creeks
to rise this morning and additional rainfall today and tonight
increases the threat for flash flooding to occur especially in
areas that saw the heaviest rainfall the last 3 days. A Flood
Watch for flash flooding potential remains in effect for
portions of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois until 7 AM
Sunday.

Widespread heavy rains are leading to rises on area rivers. The
heaviest rains the last 3 days have fallen in the Maquoketa,
Wapsipinicon, Rock, Pecatonica, English and Cedar River basins.
This is leading to forecast rises above flood stage at many
locations over the next several days. River flood watches have
been issued at many locations on these rivers. Certainty will
increase on potential flooding by tomorrow morning after the
next round of storms moves across the area tonight into Sunday
morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     063>068-077-078.
IL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ001-002-007-009-015-
     024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Cousins