934
FXUS63 KDVN 011839
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
139 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-seasonal temperatures will remain through midweek,
  trending well below normal for the second half of the week and
  into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday and then again Thursday
  night into Friday. Both events look to feature lower QPF
  throughout, bringing a welcomed rainfall to some. Otherwise,
  largely dry conditions can be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A beautiful day has been seen throughout the area, with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Weak upper level flow
and surface high pressure will help keep it quite pleasant through
the first half of the week. Remaining cloud cover should largely
clear out for a brief period tonight, resulting in more widespread
low-mid 50s and light/variable winds. Tuesday, surface high pressure
begins to exit with the shortwave that has been situated just
southwest of the area. A potent shortwave emerges over then north-
central US late Tuesday into Wednesday, which would make Tuesday the
last quiet/mild day over the next week. Will continue to see a mix
of clouds through the day, owing to increasing moisture ahead of the
next wave. Although, there will still be plenty of sun, allowing us
to increase temperatures to near 80. Tuesday will be the warmest day
of the week, as the approaching wave will bring quite the change in
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Wednesday and beyond, we see quite the change in the upper level
pattern. We have been in a relatively low flow regime with surface
high pressure remaining over the Great Lakes Region, but we are
watching quite the wave dig into the Upper Midwest. This will not
only bring through at least one strong cold front, but strong
northwesterly flow will set up over the region for several days. The
cold front will come through on Wednesday, bringing the chance for
showers/storms throughout the area. Widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected at this time, especially with overall moisture content
still remaining low. Rather, this will be a quick-hitting system
that will bring a brief bout of rain, generally 0.25-0.50", along
with some thunder. No severe weather is expected at this time. One
of the big things that we are seeing with the wave and associated
cold front is the strong cold advection that will pump in behind the
front. Dry and unseasonably cooler temperatures will work into the
area, which is represented well amongst guidance. Normal
temperatures during this time of the year are in the upper 70s to
near 80. We are forecasting high temperatures in the low-mid 60s for
many! So, that will be quite the change, especially with
widespread nighttime temperatures in the 40s.

A reinforcing cold front will pass through the area again Thursday
night into Friday, which will help keep temperatures below normal,
as well as bring another potential round of rain. Post-frontal
airmass and high pressure will move in for the upcoming weekend,
keeping temperatures below normal. Precipitation chances should
remain limited through the upcoming weekend, as strong northwesterly
flow will be overhead, ushering cooler/dryer air into the area.
While there remains some uncertainty on the longevity of this cooler
airmass, it doesn`t seem to be long lasting, as we are looking at a
possible ridge building over the Central US late in the upcoming
weekend into next week. This would allow for some return flow into
the region, bringing temperatures back near normal, as well as
increasing moisture for next week. Despite the differences amongst
long term guidance, next week looks to remain active, with an
amplified wave pattern in place. Thus, if we get enough moisture in
place, passing systems may result in further rain chances through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will
remain around 5-10 KTs and largely out of the E/SE. Otherwise,
we will be left with a diurnal Cu deck around 4-5 kft. No sig wx
is expected at this time

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

With the upcoming cool air mass, some daily record lows and
record cool highs are in range of being tied or broken. The
current records for Thursday and Friday are shown below:

RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURE:
              September 4      September 5
Moline        61 in 1874       61 in 1876
Dubuque       58 in 1994       61 in 1920

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:
              September 4      September 5
Moline        39 in 1974       42 in 1974
Dubuque       38 in 1974       44 in 1988 and others
Cedar Rapids  38 in 1974       42 in 1974
Burlington    40 in 1974       44 in 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel
CLIMATE...NWS