117
FXUS63 KDVN 131048
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
548 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slow moving showers will move in from the east today. Some
  thunder is possible with the strongest showers.

- Warm weather continues through Thursday, with a strong
  likelihood for near record high temperatures (low-mid 90s) for
  part of the area.

- There is low confidence in severe storms across part of the
  area late Wednesday through Thursday. Warm air above the
  surface may limit storm coverage and intensity on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

A closed 500 mb low is forecast to lift from western Tennessee
this morning and into eastern Kentucky by 12 UTC on Wednesday.
This will place our area on the northern periphery of this storm
system through the period. This places the area in an area of
weak lift with this storm system. CAPE profiles this afternoon
are tall and thin and have reduced POPs across the area with low
confidence in coverage of storms. CAMs and large scale models
continue to show limited coverage late this morning into the
afternoon before coverage decreases this evening. Given the CAPE
profiles thunderstorms may be more isolated during the afternoon
with showers prevailing. Any rainfall amounts will be light
today with less than an tenth of an inch of rain expected.
Highs today will range from 78 degrees in far northwest
Illinois to the 82 degrees in the Quad Cities and Cedar Rapids.

Any activity will quickly dissipate this evening with the loss
of instability. Any cloud cover will slowly clear from west to
east tonight. There will be light southeast winds overnight. Low
temperatures on Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Mid level ridging is forecast to lift across the area Wednesday
resulting in a warm up that will continue into Thursday ahead of
a storm system that will move across the area. This will result
in sunny skies on Wednesday with warmer high temperatures that
will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area. A weak
disturbance moving across Wisconsin on Wednesday may result in
isolated showers or storms in our far northwest Illinois
counties.

Wednesday night, a negatively tilted 500 MB trough is forecast
to move into Black Hills with mid level jet streak moving into
mid Missouri River Valley where thunderstorms are forecast to
develop Wednesday afternoon and evening which could result in an
MCS that moves across the area. Current model runs track this
across northern Iowa and into Iowa and Minnesota but these
storms could extend farther south with a warm airmass across the
region capping to our south.

On Thursday, a surface low and warm front are forecast to lift
from near Omaha into southwest Ontario by 12 UTC on Friday.
This will spread this systems warm sector across the area.
Models show 850 MB temperatures warming to around +20C during
the day. This airmass will have a very summer like feel to it
with high temperatures warming into the lower to mid 90s across
the area and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. The forecast
high temperatures are near record high temperatures for BRL,
MLI, CID and DBQ. In addition, models show an inversion between
800 MB and 725 MB in the 10 to 13C range which will work as a
cap to surface based convection through much of the day. This
capping weakens as you get closer to the Highway 20 corridor.
Model soundings show large CAPE profiles with 0 to 6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 knots range. If storms can form, they will have
the potential to become severe but confidence is low given
warmer air above the surface. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal Risk for severe storms on Thursday roughly along and
east of a line from Independence to Moline to Galesburg. There
is a Slight Risk for severe storms in Stephenson County. Please
continue to monitor the forecast for Thursday as the track and
timing of this storm system may still change impacting both
temperatures and severe weather potential.

Thursdays storm system is forecast to shift to the east on
Friday with its parent upper level low moving across Minnesota
and into Wisconsin. This will bring the risk of showers and
storms to the area along and north of Highway 20 or along a
Independence to Dubuque to Freeport Illinois line. A cool front
will also sweep across the area on Friday. Temperatures ahead
of this front will still be in the 80s. Any rainfall amounts
will be light.

Quiet weather is currently forecast for the weekend as high
pressure moves across the area. High temperatures on Saturday
and Sunday will be in the 70s.

Beyond Sunday, there is another potential storm system for early
next week. This is another closed low and models disagree on its
location at this time, which will impact its timing and impacts
for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Removed the MVFR ceilings between 1 and 2 kft at KBRL and KMLI
to start the period as clouds below 3kft have not developed. VFR
TAFs are expected through the period. Winds are forecast to be
southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots through the period. There
continues to be low confidence that showers or storms will
directly impact any TAf sites today and have let them out for
now. If a shower or storm were to impact a TAF site then MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins