728
FXUS63 KDVN 051739
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1139 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for freezing
  drizzle/rain set to overspread the area from southwest to
  northeast this morning into early evening leading to slippery
  conditions especially on untreated surfaces.

- Another system is slated to impact the area Friday night into
  Saturday with a wintry mix or snow. Amounts look to be light
  at this time.

- An active pattern persists next week with temperatures near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low off the
Pacific NW coast with broad southwesterly mid level flow
expanding through the Plains. At the surface high pressure
extends from the Upper Midwest through Great Lakes region.
This influx of cold, dry air will take longer to saturate and
we`ve seen some slowing of the onset of precipitation in the
guidance. That being said, an initial low amplitude perturbation
was noted over central Iowa. As this shifts east this morning
and interacts with the mid level baroclinic zone leading to
an increase in mid level FGen, it`s possible this could aid in
top down saturation sufficiently for a brief transitory period
of light snow north of I-80.

Otherwise, the main focus will be with a stronger mid level
wave over the central Rockies that will zip through the
region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low
developing over the Southern Plains and passing well to our
south. Broad lift and moisture advection will lead to burgeoning
precipitation, which may largely be freezing drizzle in
what looks like classic freezing drizzle soundings with the
loss of in-cloud ice and saturation through an isothermal
layer through 850 hPa. The drizzle will likely ensue within
a few hours of stratus arrival, as it continues to advect
northward today. We`re already seeing reports of freezing
drizzle in/around the KC metro coinciding with deeper saturation
to 1 km and weak ascent. Late this afternoon and evening, as
the shortwave approaches the combination of deeper saturation
and better forcing should foster more in the way of areas of
freezing rain/rain. This all then winds down by mid evening to
early overnight from SW to NE. Surface temps by late afternoon
and evening are anticipated to be around the freezing mark
generally speaking, potentially above by a couple degrees
south of I-80 while likely sub-freezing to the north of I-80.
All in all, a light glaze to upwards of around 0.1 inch of ice
appears probable making for slick travel by foot or automobile
and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect areawide through
this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

High pressure will build in on Thursday and should bring the
opportunity for at least partly sunny if not mostly sunny
skies. This will allow for temperatures to climb above freezing
all areas and melt any residual thin coating of ice, with
highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The focus by the end of the week into the first half of the
weekend is on our next weather maker, currently coming ashore
into northern California. An area of surface low looks to
once again pass well to our south. What we`re noticing this
morning is a bit of a colder thermal profile for much of the
area and so this may lead to predominantly snow, except for
our southern counties where a wintry mix is looking likely.
At this time the precipitation amounts look to be light with
GEFS and EPS probabilities of 24 hr QPF >0.1 inch at 40-60%
across our southeast service area.

Beyond and into next week supports a continuation of the active
pattern, as more energy comes ashore in the western CONUS and
then zips eastward through the Central CONUS is fast semi-zonal
flow. Temperatures look to be seasonable as well, and so there`s
still hope for us snow lovers!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions are continuing to overspread the area, with
only some sites remaining VFR for a few more hours. From there,
we will continue to see cigs decrease to LIFR cigs by/after
03-06z, as we fully saturate. From now and until about 06z, we
will continue to see freezing drizzle and light freezing rain
overspread the area. When we are seeing light precipitation, we
can expect vis to drop to 3-5 SM. In the end, we are not
expecting high-end ice amounts, with the highest amount forecast
to be around 0.1", but we can still expect some impacts from
light icing. Otherwise, a widespread glaze is expected. Between
06-12z, conditions will slowly start to improve, with cigs
starting to increase as we reach the later half of that time
range. Winds will be changing quite a bit through the TAF period
as well. Winds will start southeasterly and gusting upwards to
20 KTs, but will shift to near westerly by 12z. After 12z, we
will start to see winds increase quite a bit behind the system,
with gusts between 20-30 KTs possible by 15z for many.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     tonight for IAZ040>042-053-054-066.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     CST tonight for IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     IAZ076>078-087>089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ098-
     099.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     tonight for ILZ001-002-007-009.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     CST tonight for ILZ015>018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     ILZ024>026-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ034.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-
     010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Gunkel