517
FXUS63 KDVN 021908
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant early Fall weather this weekend into early next week,
  with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Temperatures
  to trend above normal late next week.

- Rises on area creeks, streams, and tributary rivers will continue
  through the weekend.  Within bank rises on the Mississippi downstream
  of Muscatine is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Fantastic early October weather was seen today, with wall-to-wall
sunshine! At 1 pm, temperatures were in the 60s and dewpoints were
in the 40s. This is much welcomed after the persistent week of
rainfall and cloudy skies.

A large area of high pressure will slide east across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight. This will bring mostly clear
skies and allow temperatures to drop into the 40s area-wide. Given
the lingering BL moisture from recent rain, can`t rule out some fog
developing in low lying areas and river valleys if winds go
calm and temps drop to around 40 degrees tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Northwest flow aloft will bring a prolonged period of welcomed dry
conditions through the weekend and into much of next week. Two upper
level waves are progged to move through the upper Midwest Saturday
evening and again Wednesday. Taking a look at 1000-500mb RH progs
from latest deterministic model runs, show moisture will be
quite limited with both waves with a better signal to our north
for any light rain. Locally, we will likely end up with just an
increase in clouds. Temperatures will be seasonable this
weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows
in the 40s. A slow warming trend will be seen next week, with
highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. Regarding precip chances,
ensemble model probabilities for QPF > 0.1" are less than 20%
area-wide through next weekend. In fact, the latest 6-10 day
precip outlook from CPC shows 70-80% combined probabilities of
near/below normal precipitation for the Oct 7th-11th time frame.
In other words, a dry pattern is in store at least for the next
10 days allowing ag fields to dry out.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High pressure will move east acrs the upper Midwest through
Saturday making for a VFR TAF cycle. Sfc winds currently from
the north to northeast will veer to the east and become light
tonight, and then continue to veer to the southeast by mid
Saturday morning and start to increase again through midday.
With the wet ground, there will be some chance of ground fog
and valley fog late tonight into early Sat morning, but
hopefully not getting into the VCNTY of any TAF site.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...12