421
FXUS63 KDVN 271719
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1119 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quiet and cold Thanksgiving Day is expected.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect area-wide for Friday night
  through Saturday night. There are moderate to high
  probabilities (60-90%) for 6 or more inches of snow across the
  outlook area as a large storm system passes through the
  Midwest into the Great Lakes. Expect widespread and prolonged
  impacts to travel due to slippery conditions and reduced
  visibility.

- Well below normal temperatures are expected early next week
  with highs only in the teens and 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Today through Friday: It will be a chilly and breezy Thanksgiving
Day with highs in the 30s and early morning wind chills in the
teens. Aside from a few flurries possible, dry conditions are
expected with no impacts to travel. High pressure building in
from the west along with gradually clearing skies late should
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s and teens tonight. The
quiet weather will continue on Friday with highs in the low/mid
30s and expect increasing clouds through the day ahead of the
approaching winter storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Friday Night - Saturday Night:

Confidence continues to increase on a winter storm impacting a
large portion of the Midwest, mainly Friday night into early
Sunday morning, leading to widespread hazardous travel. The
favored track of the low, or model consensus is from eastern
Kansas toward the southern portion of Lake Michigan. This system
will pull ample Gulf moisture northward into eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois with PWATs reaching 0.50-0.60"+. This looks
to be a long duration event as an elongated, neutrally tilted
mid-level trough and several embedded vorticity maxima traverse
the area over the course of a 24-30 hour period. At the surface,
an inverted trough is forecast to shift into the region from
the southwest Friday night and then pivot over the area as the
surface low tracks across northern Missouri/far SE Iowa and
heads toward Chicago or points just to the southeast. The bulk
of the steady precipitation looks to be near and downstream of
the surface low in a zone of persistent isentropic lift, upper
jet divergence and PVA. Since it`s an open wave aloft, models
are not developing much of a deformation zone NW of the surface
low, although this could change if the system were to strengthen
further.

Latest ensemble guidance has continued to increase snowfall
probabilities. The NBM 24 hr probabilities for 6" or more range
between 60-90%+, even the 8" probs are quite high at 40-80%,
lowest in the far south and highest along and north of the I-80
corridor. Therefore had enough confidence on this shift to issue
a Winter Storm Watch for the entire outlook area. While it`s
too early to get into exact snowfall amounts, if the wetter
models verify, like the EC deterministic and ensemble mean (QPF
between 0.70 - 1.00") amounts of 8-10"+ are possible for parts
of the area. With that said, it`s still early and there is
plenty of time for the details to change.

The model consensus track from eastern Kansas toward the far
southern tip of Lake Michigan would keep most of the outlook
area on the cold side of this system and the p-type as all
snow. The exception may be across the far southern counties as
the broad surface low could track across this region and pull
slightly warmer air northward (temps reaching the mid 30s) by
Saturday PM, leading to a rain/snow mix. But this would be after
a period of moderate to heavy snow Friday PM into Saturday AM.

For timing, models are in good agreement on steady snow starting
Friday night and continuing through the day Saturday into
Saturday night. With temperatures in the 20s Friday night the
snow will quickly begin to accumulate, leading to slippery
conditions. The initial round of WAA and 850-700mb frontogenesis
could result in a quick increase in the intensity of the snow
Friday night into early Saturday morning. So we`ll have to watch
this period for some heavier snow rates, potentially up to
1"/hr over portions of the area.

Sunday On: Well below normal temperatures are expected into
early next week with the widespread fresh snowpack across the
region. NBM highs are in the teens and 20s with lows in the
single digits above/below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Diurnal heating has slowed down the southward advancement of
MVFR CIGS across southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Diurnal
stratocumulus/cumulus development may allow brief periods of
MVFR CIGS at KCID/KDBQ through 00z/28 along with gusty winds up
to 22 knots. After 00z/28 winds will slowly decrease to 10 knots
or less with isolated flurries possible across northwest
Illinois.

Significant winter storm will impact eastern Iowa and northern
Illinois after 00z/29.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-
     087>089-098-099.
IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-
     035.
MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...08