674
FXUS63 KDVN 011124
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent showers will remain through much of Thursday, with
  the potential for heavier rainfall through the morning hours.
  We will start to see rainfall decrease from northwest-
  southeast through the afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch
  remains in effect.

- Pleasant early Fall weather this weekend into early next week,
  with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The prolonged period of wet weather continues through Thursday, as
we continue to see bouts of energy push into the region ahead of the
wave currently ejecting off of the Rockies. Strong moisture
advection into the area will continue through the remainder of
tonight into Thursday morning. Thus, we expect persistent showers,
some heavy, to continue through at least Thursday morning. A
baroclinic zone will generally set up near the Highway 20 corridor
through this morning as well, which will be the focal point for
heavier precipitation, slowly tracking southeast through the
day. Some of the heaviest rainfall will be seen along this
boundary, as there will be better chances for more convective
structures and embedded thunderstorms. These storms will favor
local enhancements in rainfall rates, resulting in quick and
efficient accumulation. At this time, areas north of Highway 30
are favored to have the best chances for heavier rainfall
through Thursday morning, with light-moderate rainfall south.
We will start to see this larger wave weaken through today as it
tracks northeast into the Central Plains. Over the next 12
hours, we will start to see the LLJ shift east of the area as
well. So, with the decaying wave and the bulk of moisture
transport moving out of our area, we will finally see this
system and front start to slowly move out of the area later
today. By mid-evening, most of the area should be clear of the
persistent rainfall. Best chances for precipitation will be in
far southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois this evening, with
most areas becoming dry by midnight tonight.

With the rounds of rainfall that moved through the area on
Wednesday, we generally saw 1-3" of rain, with heaviest amounts
roughly along the Interstate 80 corridor. From now through the
remainder of Thursday, an additional 1-2" of rainfall can be
expected throughout the area, with areas along Highway 20
potentially seeing upwards to an additional 3" due to heavier
rainfall. As such, the Flood Watch will continue through
Thursday, as we will see the potential for further rises along
area rivers, along with the potential for areal flooding. WPC
continues to advertise a Slight Risk, level 2/4, for Excessive
Rainfall. Thus, there will be a low-end threat for flash
flooding, but best chances will be north of Highway 30 this
morning. Although, confidence is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Friday Through Sunday...

Dry, pleasant conditions are on the forecast for the weekend. Upper-
levels will be mainly zonal with a shortwave trough overnight
Saturday connecting to a surface low north of the Great Lakes.
This will sweep a weak boundary through our area Sunday morning
bringing a shift in the winds from southerly to northerly. Due
to low moisture content, we are expecting dry frontal passage
with some passing high clouds. Mostly clear skies, with
relatively light winds, and low moisture means the weekend
should be very nice for any outdoor activities. Highs will sit
comfortably in the 60s to 70s. With the northerly winds, we
should see lows go from 50s Saturday evening, to 40s Sunday
night.

Next Week...

High pressure will set up over the area for the start of the week,
which will continue the pleasant weather. Another weak shortwave
trough could bring a slight chance for rain along a cold front
Wednesday, but probs are very low (<15%) due to lacking moisture
return. A wind shift and some passing clouds will be the main sign
of a passing system, with dry frontal passage seeming more likely at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Widespread rain and variable low cigs/visibility are found over
the area early this morning, as moisture continues to surge
northeast along and ahead of a cold front, which will pass
through the area today, reaching northern areas this morning,
and southeast Iowa this afternoon. Showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the day, and in
a scattered nature, this afternoon and early evening, before dry
air begins to arrive behind the front. Thus, the variable low
IFR/MVFR cigs/vis in rain will give way to a VFR sky by late
afternoon northwest to late evening southeast. Winds will be
generally under 10 kts, but be southerly ahead of the front this
morning, and northerly behind the front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Many of the area rivers have not fully returned to normal
streamflows after the last rainfall event in mid-September.
That leaves them primed for additional flooding where the higher
rainfall totals end up over the next couple days, especially
along the Iowa and Skunk rivers. Several river watches and
warnings have been issued where flooding is most likely to
occur. There will also likely be rises along the Mississippi
River especially south of New Boston. These river forecasts are
largely based on rain that hasn`t fallen yet, so the forecasts
will likely be adjusted once we see how much rain falls and
where the highest amounts are across the area leading to a
higher confidence in flood category. Please keep an eye on
forecast and updates to flood products in the coming days.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     063>068-076>078-087>089-098.
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ007-009-015-016-024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Schreck