930
FXUS63 KDVN 110444
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1044 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...Updated for 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold again tonight with the potential for flurries across the
  area north of Interstate 80.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday and continues
  through Saturday.

- The weather pattern looks to turn more active next weekend.
  However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the
  evolution of a potential storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tonight: A shortwave is forecast to move through the flow tonight
leading to increased clouds.  CAMs appear to be overdoing
precipitation tonight associated with this shortwave as model
soundings show a substantial dry layer below 700 MB tonight
across western portions of the CWA. Model soundings are still
dry to the east but I did add flurries to the forecast after
midnight.

Tuesday: This shortwave will push a cold front across the area
during the day on Tuesday and turn winds from southerly during
the morning to the west by late afternoon. Winds will be gusty
through the day with speeds of 10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25
MPH. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast late morning
into the afternoon as this wave exits the area. Southerly winds
during the morning will pull warmer air northward with high
temperatures on Tuesday noticeably warmer than the past 48
hours. High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower
40s in far northwest Illinois to the lower 50s in northeast
Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A highly amplified pattern is in place across the CONUS through
the long term period with high pressure bringing quiet weather
to the area Wednesday through Friday, along with a gradual
warming trend. Models continue to forecast well above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Normal high temperatures
for the middle of November are in the mid to upper 40s across
the area. High temperatures Friday will be about 20 degrees
above normal, area-wide, then 25 degrees above normal on
Saturday. Saturdays high temperatures are currently within 1 to
3 degrees of records. The ECWMF EFI and Shift of Tails also
suggest near record high temperatures are possible on both days.


A complicated forecast for the upcoming weekend with split flow
across the CONUS. A northern jet stream system will emerge from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday as a
closed low moves into the southern Plains. This will push a cold
front across the area on Sunday. Currently, the models show the two
different branches of the jet stream unphased, which may limit
moisture transport northward into the area. Thus latest model
runs have the area dry through Sunday morning. The latest NBM
has widespread 30 to 45 percent chances of rain Saturday night
through Sunday with thunderstorms possible Saturday night.
However, the latest model runs keep the moisture and
precipitation with initial northern wave north and east of the
area, delaying precipitation until the arrival of forcing with
the southern wave on Sunday. Both the GEFS and EPS mean
precipitation show more widespread precipitation than the
operational models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Winds are the primary concern for the TAFs, as conditions are
expected to remain VFR. Overnight there will be a period of
LLWS potential through daybreak with ramping winds of 40-50 kt
from SW at 1500-2000 ft agl. During the day on Tuesday, winds
will turn gusty from S/SW with gusts 25-30 kt. The winds will
switch to the WSW to W by late afternoon and evening while
gradually decreasing.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...McClure