857
FXUS63 KDVN 061133
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
633 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pleasant weekend continues, with mild highs and chilly lows.

- Large diurnal ranges will be the rule through next weekend, with a
  notable warming trend beginning Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

2 AM temperatures have already fallen to the lower to mid 40s in
many locations throughout our CWA, with at least one spot in
northern Illinois, Rochelle, seeing the upper 30s.  Lows remain on
track to reach the 39-43 range today, Brrr!

Despite the cool start, we`re on track for another beautiful day,
with northwest winds lower than yesterday, but otherwise, a very
similar day. Diurnal cumulus is again expected to develop, but this
should not inhibit a 20+ degree diurnal rise, to the lower 60s north
to upper 60s central and south. Winds will rapidly decrease again
towards sunset, as high pressure moves into the area. This high will
be over the CWA through Sunday night.  In all, a spectacular weekend
remains in place. The light winds, and dry air will allow for
another cold start, with lows spots reaching the upper 30s and urban
areas and river sites seeing mid 40s tonight. Sunday will be a few
degrees warmer than today, but with clear skies and light winds, it
will feel warmer. That high pressure will be sliding east overnight
into Monday morning, and with that, we will see our last cold
anomaly low in this stretch Sunday night. Lows in the lower 40s east
to upper 40s west are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Monday will see south winds (10 to 15 mph) develop, and sunshine
through at least the morning hours. Highs are forecast to reach the
lower 70s north to mid to upper 70s south, which is a bit below the
NBM, which is skewed several degrees above the mean, a trend that
continues Tuesday as well. We have been verifying closer to the
mean to lower 25% of guidance lately, which likely is a sign of
models adjusting to seasonal change. I`ve continued to nudge
towards cooler guidance through Tuesday, but after that, a broad
spread of ensemble data supports lower to mid 80s for highs
Wednesday through Friday. Most periods in the next week will be
dry.

A passing short wave Monday night into Tuesday could bring showers
and possibly a weak storm to the region. For now, the moisture
connection appears short lived and any activity limited. Rain
chances are forecast 20-40%, with best chances in northern counties
for now. QPF remains under 0.10 by nearly all guidance except the
operational EC which is much higher, but also favoring northwestern
counties.

Late summer warmth, but comfortable humidity is on the way later
this week as discussed above.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Westerly
winds around 5 KTs will increase through the morning, with
gusts upwards to 20 KTs possible this afternoon. Otherwise, no
sig wx is expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
               September 6       September 7
Dubuque        38 in 1988        37 in 1956
Moline         40 in 1988        39 in 1956
Cedar Rapids   40 in 1950        38 in 1986
Burlington     44 in 1988        42 in 1956

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gunkel
CLIMATE...NWS