133
FXUS63 KDVN 122307
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
607 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and mild conditions today will bring an enhanced risk
  for fires spreading out of control, primarily in eastern Iowa
  in unharvested fields.

- While rain chances are found in the early week periods,
  rainfall appears spotty and light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Rest of Today: Well above normal temperatures in the lower to
upper 70s combined with breezy SE winds gusting 20-25+ mph will
result in elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in
unharvested fields. Minimum relative humidity (%) is expected
to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s, which will limit the
overall fire weather potential with dewpoints holding in the
upper 40s to upper 50s. The highest forecast GFDIAg values are
confined to the far northwest portion of the outlook area and
peak in the very high category.

Tonight: Increasing warm air advection and convergence aloft
(850-700mb), out ahead of an approaching surface cold front,
will lead to scattered showers developing mainly after 8 PM.
Expect a narrow band of isolated/scattered showers to slowly
work west to east across the outlook area overnight, with the
highest chances to receive measurable rainfall north of Highway
30 (30-60%). Weaker forcing to the south lends to lower chances
between 20-30%. Overall this will be an insignificant system
with most of the area only receiving trace amounts to under a
tenth of total rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Monday will once again be warm with highs in the 70s, but with
much lighter wind flow with the front near the area. Early
monday evening, a cold front will will makes it way farther
south through the area, with a dry low level air spreading in,
and gradually strengthening CAA from the north to northeast into
Tuesday. Models are less supportive of saturation north of this
front Monday and Tuesday than were indicated in past runs, but
we`re continuing with low pops of 15-30% through Tuesday night,
mainly in the western counties. Any rainfall would be very
light.

This boundary remains in play through Thursday, with cloud cover
north of the front resulting in cool highs Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Thursday a deep upper trof is expected to spread into the
western Plains, with strengthening southerly flow and another
warm up for Thursday-Friday. Models are still showing that this
deep trof may bring a more widespread rainfall chance into the
weekend, followed by cooler air again into early next week. At
this time, there remains low confidence on this potential storm
system`s impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Scattered light showers ahead of a weak cold front will be
possible at all terminals overnight. Due to low coverage have
kept PROB30 wording for this activity, with conditions likely
remaining VFR. Any steadier rain showers could briefly result in
MVFR vsbys primarily at DBQ. South winds will switch out of the
north at all sites by late morning behind fropa, with clearing
skies.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gross