474
FNUS21 KWNS 171640
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...

No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed.
Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave
trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will
promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through
today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of
20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather
conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and
Rio Grande Valley.

..Williams.. 06/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the
central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of
moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into
the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a
lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while
a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High
Plains.

...Western NM and eastern AZ...
In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal
heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will
yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the
afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced
deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient
peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained
westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures.
This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop
dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$