Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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668
FNUS21 KWNS 290558
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will continue to traverse the southwestern
CONUS today as the remnants of Hurricane Polo become entrained
within the overall flow, aiding in widespread rainfall from the
Desert Southwest into the central U.S. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure filtering into the Intermountain West will contribute to
dry northerly flow across portions of the Sacramento Valley and
southern California. Farther north, increasing westerly flow aloft
and a tightening surface pressure gradient across the northern
Rockies/High Plains will promote breezy, downslope winds in
north-central Montana.

...Sacramento Valley and Southern California...
Daytime high temperatures in the 90s and RH values of 10-15% are
expected as a strengthening thermal trough induces northerly winds
of 10-15 mph into the Sacramento Valley. Meteorological conditions
amid a drying fuelscape support an Elevated fire weather risk this
afternoon. Northerly, offshore wind trajectories and RH as low as
15% will also impact southern Santa Barbara County, and the
mountains and foothills of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties through
the early afternoon. Wind speeds in favored terrain gaps will
approach 15-20 mph with stronger gusts of 35-45 mph. Thus, Elevated
highlights have been maintained for portions of southern California.

...North-Central Montana...
A region of 50-60 kt mid-level zonal flow atop a tightening surface
pressure gradient across the northern High Plains will contribute to
dry downslope flow over portions of north-central Montana this
afternoon. Westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph and minimum RH of
20-25 percent will overlap drying fuels, promoting an Elevated fire
weather risk.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$