762
FNUS21 KWNS 171548
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

Minor changes were made to existing Elevated fire weather risk area
in agreement with the latest forecast guidance showing strongest
winds slightly farther east. As was previously mentioned, afternoon
RHs in the mid teens will combine with breezy, terrain-influenced
westerly winds up to 10-15 mph. These weather conditions will
combine with critically dry fuels exceeding the 95th percentile ERCs
across far northeastern CA, southeastern OR, and northwestern NV.
Regarding the dry thunderstorm potential over the northern Rockies
and surrounding areas, recent precipitation and less than severely
dry fuels have moderated receptivity and spread potential. While
lightning ignitions cannot be totally ruled out, a widespread dry
thunderstorm threat is not anticipated.

..Stearns.. 08/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging across the western US will weaken as a trough
deepens across the Canadian Prairies. Increasing westerly flow
across the northern periphery of the ridge will bring an increase in
surface winds across portions of northern California and the Great
Basin with dry and breezy conditions possible.

...Northern Great Basin and Northeast California...
Warm afternoon temperatures are forecast to overlap with breezy
southwesterly surface winds across portions of northeastern
California into northern Nevada this afternoon. Relative humidity
reductions to 15-20% will overlap with sustained westerly winds
around 10-15 mph to support a few hours of Elevated fire weather
conditions. Fuels in this region remain critically dry, with little
to no recent rainfall.

...Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the trough sweeping across the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains will bring widely scattered thunderstorm activity
across portions of the northern Rockies this afternoon. Moisture
will be shallow and limited, with precipitable water values around
0.50-0.90". This in combination with faster storm motions may lead
to little in the way of wetting rainfall. However, several days of
wetting rainfall have tempered fuels such that dry storms and
lightning ignitions are expected to be sporadic. Several new starts
have been noted across southwestern ID and eastern OR. Depending on
the timing and location of the approaching shortwave trough, an
isolated thunderstorm over dry fuels further south into Idaho is
possible, albeit low (5-10% chance).

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$