082
FNUS21 KWNS 051649
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

...Midwest and Lower Great Lakes...
A deepening surface low moving into Ontario and mid-level jet over
the Upper Midwest will continue to support an expansive southerly to
southwesterly surface wind field from the Southern Plains into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region through this afternoon. Mostly clear
skies should aid in more efficient mixing of drier air aloft across
northern IL and northwestern IN, resulting in minimum RH values this
afternoon as low as 20%. Overlap of south/southwest winds of 15-20
mph with dry and warm conditions atop drought stressed fuels and
curing grasses will promote an elevated fire weather threat across
northern IL/northwestern IN today.

..Williams.. 10/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025/

...Synopsis...
A mature upper trough over the central/northern Plains is forecast
to lift northward into the Great Lakes with strong southwesterly
flow overspreading the Midwest. At the surface, a strong low is
forecast to intensify as it lifts northward near the Canadian
border. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward over the Northern
Plains with wetting rainfall likely along and behind it. Ahead of
the front, continued warm/dry conditions are likely over parts of
the Midwest where elevated fire-weather conditions are possible.

...Midwest...
As the surface low deepens over the upper Midwest ahead of the upper
trough, a broad area of strong southerly winds is expected over
parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Afternoon winds of 15-20 mph
will be common as stronger flow aloft is mixed toward the surface.
Modest surface moisture transport ahead of the trailing front should
mix as drier air aloft will overspread the area. This should allow
for a few hours of low RH (20-30%) this afternoon from portions of
eastern IA into northern IL and IN. Given the very dry fuels, a few
hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely.

...Southern High Plains...
Along and east of a surface trough, gusty southwest winds are likely
across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into eastern NM and western
KS. Warm temperatures and downslope trajectories should support RH
values below 30% through the afternoon. The favorable RH and
increase in winds gusting to 20-25 mph should allow for some locally
elevated fire-weather conditions given increasingly dry fine fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$