338
FNUS21 KWNS 311459
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311700Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Upper-level ridging is currently centered over western Montana,
promoting a continued dry airmass and warm temperatures across the
Inland Northwest this afternoon. Satellite imagery depicts heavy
wildfire smoke blanketing much of the region, which could limit
broader daytime high temperatures to 80-90F. At peak heating, RH
values will decline to around 15% where ERCs are exceeding the 90th
percentile. A lesser spatial extent of sustained winds greater than
15 mph preclude an introduction of Elevated highlights; however,
areas of terrain-influenced winds exceeding 15 mph could promote
locally elevated fire concerns. In addition, an extended burning
period is expected, as minimal overnight humidity recoveries are
forecast over the Columbia Basin and portions of eastern Oregon.
These conditions may further exacerbate numerous wildfires across
the region, especially as an upper trough begins to move onshore
late in the forecast period (after 06z) leading to robust and
expansive fire weather concerns on Day 2/Saturday (see the Day 2
Fire Weather Outlook). The rest of the forecast remains on track,
see the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026/

...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level trough will begin to move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest tonight, with upper-level ridging ahead of this
trough extending from the Desert Southwest into the northern
Rockies. An embedded, mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
precede the larger trough and move from northern California into the
northern Rockies through this afternoon while weakening. Hot, dry,
and locally breezy conditions are likely across much of the West,
especially the Intermountain West, this afternoon, with locally
elevated fire weather conditions possible. The lack of widespread,
sustained surface winds above 15 mph precludes the inclusion of
Elevated highlights, however.

Isolated, drier thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central/eastern Idaho and southwest Montana this afternoon and
evening, but the latest SREF/HREF guidance continues to suggest less
than a 20% chance and generally less than a 10% chance of
thunderstorms. Somewhat greater chances for thunderstorms exist
farther east into portions of Wyoming, but this activity is likely
to be wetter and over less receptive fuels. Elsewhere, monsoonal
thunderstorms remain likely over portions of southeastern Arizona
and along/east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$