577
FNUS21 KWNS 161515
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible this
afternoon across the high plains of CO, but recent rainfall and only
modestly dry fuels (ERCs near or below the 50th percentile) should
limit fire weather concerns. Similarly, localized dry/breezy
conditions remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and New England
regions within an offshore flow regime, but rainfall within the past
few days will limit fire potential.

..Moore.. 10/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a robust
midlevel speed maximum will overspread the northern/central Plains,
while a related cold front moves slowly eastward across the region.
At the tail end of the front, an evolving lee cyclone over
southeastern CO and strong midlevel flow across the Front Range will
yield dry/breezy downslope conditions across eastern CO during the
afternoon. Around 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds and 10-15 percent RH will favor a couple hours of locally
elevated fire-weather conditions where any dry fuels exist.

Farther east, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across
the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon. This may result in
locally elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out
on substantial precipitation during the last couple weeks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$