972
FNUS21 KWNS 111652
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong
south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will
continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across
the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry
fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region.
Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region
continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving
into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20
percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada
border. Critical highlights were extended northward into
northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

..Williams.. 05/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a
trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee
low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains
and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The
dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support
dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent
precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are
likely over the Plains today and tonight.

...Plains and Upper Midwest...
East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are
likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest.
As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the
region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph.
Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of
dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with
little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical
fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$